They’re still underdogs, but for the first time in a long time, Democrats have a real chance to win the majority in the State Assembly in the first election under new, fairer maps.

This is part of The Recombobulation Area and Civic Media’s 2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Voter Guide. Read the first part of the series, “New Board, New Game,” here. See the State Senate guide here. See the comprehensive preview and find your district at the Civic Media Voter Guide here.

Maps used here are from CNalysis, which projects state legislative races all over the country. Image used with permission. All graphics by Jade Shepherd.

Every two years, the Wisconsin State Assembly starts fresh. Each of the 99 seats is on the ballot, with all state representatives elected to serve a two-year term. These biennial election cycles bring with them new possibilities for the voters from every corner of the state to determine Wisconsin’s future. It’s a moment of possibility, of new beginnings. It is a true moment for democracy.

But for more than a decade, the hope of that moment has been snuffed out, with results all but preordained through some of the most egregiously gerrymandered maps in place anywhere in the country. In this 50-50 purple state, Republicans have held 60 or more Assembly seats every year since passing these maps following the 2010 census. The GOP has held the majority in the Assembly for all but five of the last 32 years, but it wasn’t until those maps were in place that 60 or more Republican representatives became the norm. Through this entrenched power, the Assembly became increasingly unaccountable to Wisconsin’s voters, and under the leadership of Republican Robin Vos, continued to ignore the will of the people.

But now, with new, fairer maps in place for the 2024 election, that hope and possibility is finally returning to the Wisconsin State Legislature. For the first time in more than 13 years, either party could win the majority in the Assembly.

Yes, really. This might be discombobulating to wrap your head around after so many years of Democrats being boxed-out of power, but there is a real path for them to reach that 50-seat threshold and control the Assembly. While a Democratic majority in the Senate is optimistically still two years away, there is a potential outcome where Greta Neubauer is Assembly Speaker and Robin Vos is Minority Leader come January 2025. That would be an earthquake in Wisconsin state politics.

At the DNC in Chicago, I sat down with Neubauer to talk about the chances of Democrats getting to the majority in this year’s election, and she thinks it can happen. She even put a number on it, predicting they’d win 52 seats.

“Many of these legislative races will probably be decided by a few hundred votes,” she said. “There are so many close districts under these maps. (There are) 10 seats where, if you layer on Biden’s results from 2020, it would be two percentage points plus or minus for Biden…We have 52 seats that Gov. Evers would have won if we’d had these maps in 2022. We have 49 that Biden would have won, and three that he would have lost by half a percentage point. So, the path is there.”

Neubauer is correct to say the path is indeed there. But at this point, Democrats should still be considered the underdogs to win the Assembly majority — I’d give them about a 40% chance to flip the chamber. The most likely outcome is that Republicans remain in the majority, but a very slim one, and nothing close to the near-supermajority they’ve enjoyed for so many years.

Republicans also clearly took candidate recruitment far more seriously this year. In years past, they could get away with having more extreme, inexperienced candidates because the maps were on their side. Now, there are fewer candidates in competitive districts with fringe views, or who may have denied the results of the 2020 election — though many incumbents in safe districts still might fit that description. Now, candidates like Jessie Rodriguez in the 21st or Dean Kaufert in the 53rd could very well overperform the partisan lean of their new district.

At the same time, all of the momentum in the presidential race is currently on Democrats’ side, with Kamala Harris becoming the nominee providing a jolt of enthusiasm that’s being felt up and down the ticket in Wisconsin. There is also every reason to believe there is a whole lot of pent-up energy among Democratic voters who have been denied opportunities for representation for nearly a generation under gerrymandered maps.

So, it will come down to toss-up districts — toss-up districts in places like Ashwaubenon or Oak Creek or Neenah or Sheboygan or Wausau or Greenfield or La Crosse. The swingiest parts of the state will be the ones to determine the majority. What a concept.

In the Assembly, we’ve broken this down into several categories. They are…

The Toss-Ups (8)
The Close Races (4)
The Safe Seats
- The Safe Democrats (27)
  - Probably Safe (13)
  - Very Safe (14)
- The Safe Republicans (44)
  - Probably Safe (4)
  - Very Safe (38)
The Uncontested Races (16)
- Uncontested Democrats (14)
- Uncontested Republicans (2)

Here is where we see the true political geography of Wisconsin revealed. Republicans like to argue that Democrats are clustered in larger cities, and that’s why the GOP tends to win in the state legislature. There is a shred of truth to that — large numbers of Democrats do live in Milwaukee and Madison — but it’s an overly simplistic, politically advantageous point that shrouds the truth about how Wisconsin is organized geographically.

The districts that lean furthest to one side include many of the heavily Democratic districts in Milwaukee and Madison that might be D+70 (or more). In this election, Republicans are not even contesting many of those seats.

The next furthest to one side can be seen in the many “Very Safe” Republican districts, often leaning 25% or more in favor of Republicans. There are more seats like this on the Republican side than on the Democratic side. The urban-rural divide has been amplified in the Trump era, and we certainly see that in Wisconsin, where larger, rural districts are more often deep red, but there are still enough rural Democrats to keep those margins closer to a 65%-35% range than an 80%-20% wipeout.

For blue-leaning districts — especially those in the “Probably Safe” category, which there are more of in the Democratic column — many might lean 15% in favor of Democrats. You can see this in districts anchored in cities like Wauwatosa, Whitewater, Appleton, Stevens Point, Kenosha, La Crosse or Eau Claire. There are fewer “Probably Safe” Republican districts, but some do appear in places like Door County or the city of Waukesha or counties in the southwestern part of the state.

Then, you have the truly competitive districts, and it’s a mix of cities in the Fox Valley and the Green Bay area, the Milwaukee area suburbs, certain clusters around western Wisconsin, and many of the mid-size cities dotting the state, like Wausau or Sheboygan.

Add it up, and we have 46 seats likely to be in Republican control, 41 likely to be in Democratic control, and 12 closely competitive seats that will ultimately determine the majority, eight of which could truly go either way.

So, let’s break this down, district-by-district, for all 99 seats. Let’s recombobulate, and preview all 99 seats on the ballot this year in the Wisconsin State Assembly.

Before we get to previewing each individual district, let’s get to some of the changes we already know about, on who is departing the Assembly and how some of these districts have changed with new maps. There’s a lot more here in the 99-seat Assembly than there was in the Senate.

Departing:

Republicans:
- Peter Schmidt (AD6, lost primary AD6), Janel Brandtjen (AD22, lost primary in AD24), Terry Katsma (AD26, not seeking re-election), Gae Magnafici (AD28, not seeking re-election), Ellen Schutt (AD31, not seeking re-election to avoid primary with Tyler August), John Plumer (AD42, not seeking re-election), Michael Schraa (AD53, lost primary for AD55), Ty Bodden (AD59, not seeking re-election to avoid primary with Ron Tusler), Donna Rozar (AD69, lost primary for AD86), Angie Sapik (AD73, not seeking re-election), Nik Rettinger (AD83, not seeking re-election), James Edming (AD87, not seeking re-election), John Macco (AD88, not seeking re-election), Warren Petryk (AD93, not seeking re-election),
Democrats:
- Daniel Riemer (AD7, not seeking re-election), Marisabel Cabrera (already open seat AD9, elected to Milwaukee County Circuit Court judge), Dora Drake (AD11, elected to SD4), LaKeshia Myers (AD12, lost primary for SD4), Evan Goyke (AD18, elected as Milwaukee City Attorney), Sue Conley (AD44, not seeking re-election), Jimmy Anderson (AD47, lost primary for SD16), Samba Baldeh (AD48, lost primary for SD16), Tod Ohnstad (AD65, not seeking re-election), Katrina Shankland (AD71, lost primary in 3rd Congressional District), Dave Considine (AD81, not seeking re-election), Kristina Shelton (AD90, not seeking re-election)

In a new district number:

Democrats:
- Robyn Vining (AD14 to AD13), Jenna Jacobson (AD43 to AD50), Lee Snodgrass (AD57 to AD52), Shelia Stubbs (AD77 to AD78), Lisa Subeck (AD78 to AD79), Alex Joers (AD79 to AD81)
Republicans:
- Dave Maxey (AD15 to AD83), Paul Melotik (AD24 to AD22), Amy Binsfeld (AD27 to AD26), Clint Moses (AD29 to AD92), Tyler August (AD32 to AD31), Scott Johnson (AD33 to AD43), William Penterman (AD37 to AD38), Barbara Dittrich (AD38 to AD99), Mark Born (AD39 to AD37), Kevin Peterson (AD40 to AD57), Alex Dallman (AD41 to AD39), Tony Kurtz (AD50 to AD41), Jerry O’Conner (AD52 to AD60), Robert Brooks (AD60 to AD59), Amanda Nedweski (AD61 to AD32), Robert Wittke (AD62 to AD63), Robin Vos (AD63 to AD33), Rob Summerfield (AD67 to AD68), Karen Hurd (AD68 to AD69), David Armstrong (AD75 to AD67), Chuck Wichgers (AD82 to AD84), Bob Donovan (AD84 to AD61), Elijah Behnke (AD89 to AD6), Treig Pronschinske (AD92 to AD29), Scott Allen (AD97 to AD82), Adam Neylon (AD98 to AD15), Cindi Duchow (AD99 to AD97)

Here is the partisan projection from CNalysis on the 2022 map…

… and here’s how it looks on the new map for 2024.

To preview the elections in the Assembly, we’ve grouped these races into several categories, as you’ve seen. We’re using projections from the terrific site CNalysis, which correctly predicted every State Senate race and 98 of 99 Assembly races in 2022. The district graphics you see below use district maps from their forecast, which you can explore online here. We’re also using data from Marquette University research fellow John D. Johnson, who used a modeled formula to show the partisan lean of each of these new districts, if they were to have occurred in the 2022 election. When people say a district “leans” a certain way, this is the number to use. For more information on Johnson’s methodology for this model, it’s available online here.

Additionally, we are including embedded video of Wisconsin Eye’s candidate interviews, where possible, along with links to coverage of these candidates from Civic Media.

Also, an asterisk next to each candidate’s name denotes an incumbent senator. The link on each candidate’s name goes directly to their individual campaign website.

So, without further adieu, these are the categories for the 99 races on the ballot this year in the State Assembly:

The Toss-Ups (8)

District 21

D: David Marstellar

R: Jessie Rodriguez*

The math on this district suggests that this is in line for Democrats to flip the seat. Democrats have a clear advantage here based on the partisanship of the district and where it’s been shifting in recent years. CNalysis is projecting a Democratic victory here, and it’s a district that Mandela Barnes won by 5% and Tony Evers won by 9%.

But this is a district where the numbers don’t quite tell the full story. State Rep. Jessie Rodriguez is a stronger GOP incumbent than most. She has served in her district since 2013, has been in leadership positions in the party, and is a member of the Joint Committee on Finance. She has a good reputation, someone certainly not aligned with the more fanatical wing of Assembly Republicans. She was also born in El Salvador and is one of the few Republican people of color in the legislature. And as many other Milwaukee County districts have moved significantly in favor of Democrats in recent election cycles, Rodriguez has continued to win by strong margins. In 2022, under old maps, this was a district that Tony Evers and Ron Johnson each won by less than 5%, but Rodriguez won re-election by about an 8-point margin.

Under new maps, the composition of this district has changed somewhat, moving a few points to the left, but still in swing district territory. Oak Creek continues to be the main city this district is organized around, but previously it stretched west into redder territory near Franklin, and now, bends north toward Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport.

Rodriguez’ opponent is David Marstellar, who did not face a challenge in the primary. This is his first time running for office, but he’s been involved in politics for some time, dating back to 2008 as a member of the Obama for America campaign, and also in caucus chair roles within the Democratic Party of Wisconsin in recent years. He’s a member of the LGBTQ community and is married to Israel “Issy” Ramon, who currently serves as the Milwaukee County Register of Deeds. Marstellar is a heart transplant survivor and says this care was made possible by the Affordable Care Act, leading to his continued advocacy on health care issues.

CNalysis: Lean D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+8

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+8.1

District 26

D: Joe Sheehan

R: Amy Binsfeld*

District 26 in the Sheboygan area stood out under old maps as one of the prime examples of gerrymandering in the Wisconsin State Legislature. Republicans essentially drew a line down the middle of the roughly 50,000-person city, carving what was once a reliably Democratic seat into two red districts. This was covered extensively in a terrific 2023 New Yorker feature story by Wisconsin native Dan Kaufman. Now, the 26th includes the entire city of Sheboygan, and this projects to be one of the most competitive races on the entire Assembly map.

Republican Amy Binsfeld is running for re-election here. She currently represents District 27 but is drawn into District 26, which is now represented by Republican Terry Katsma, who is retiring at the end of his term. Binsfeld is in her first term in the Assembly, and is the Chair of the Speaker’s Task Force on Truancy, and introduced a number of bills on the issue. She was part of a group of Republican legislators who introduced a bill that would have eliminated work permits for 14- and 15-year-olds last session.

The Democratic candidate in this race is Joe Sheehan, who worked for 17 years as the superintendent of the Sheboygan Area School District, and after retiring, became the executive director of the Sheboygan County Economic Development Corporation. Sheehan looks to be a very strong candidate in this district, making this a top pickup opportunity for Democrats.

CNalysis: Tilt D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+4

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+4.2

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 53

D: Duane Shukoski

R: Dean Kaufert

The 53rd is a new district in the Fox Valley, and being an open seat in a swingy party of the state means this is bound to be highly competitive. This district now includes Neenah and Menasha, along the northwest of Lake Winnebago.

The Democratic candidate here is Duane Shukoski, who worked for nearly four decades at Kimberly-Clark, as part of the union and later as Environmental Coordinator at three plants. This is his first time running for elected office.

He’ll face Republican Dean Kaufert, who has a wealth of political experience. He served in the State Assembly from 1991 to 2015, and was the mayor of Neenah from 2014 to 2022. He’s also the owner of The Dome, a sports bar in Neenah. WisPolitics reported that Robin Vos was lobbying Kaufert to come out of retirement and run for this seat. Kaufert was one of the few Assembly Republicans to vote against the controversial Act 10.

While the math suggests this is a pick-up opportunity for Democrats, Kaufert’s political experience in the region suggests he might have certain advantages in a campaign like this.

CNalysis: Lean D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+8

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+6.8

District 61

D: LuAnn Bird

R: Bob Donovan*

Longtime readers of The Recombobulation Area may recall our 2022 feature story on LuAnn Bird’s remarkable and unconventional campaign for Assembly, “Bird on a Wire,” a story that went on to win the silver award for “Best Long Hard Feature Story” from the Milwaukee Press Club. In 2023, Bird also hosted a 10-part podcast series at The Recombobulation Area, featuring conversations on civility, hope and action.

Bird lost one of the closest races on the map two years ago, coming up short by just over 500 votes. Prior to that campaign, she was the executive director for the League of Women Voters of Wisconsin, and served on school boards in Oshkosh and at the Whitnall School Board and has also worked with the Wisconsin Association of School Boards. She’s also long been an advocate for people with disabilities, as her husband, a Vietnam War veteran, was paralyzed in a construction accident in 1990.

Bird is running again, setting up a rematch with Bob Donovan. This race took place in the 84th District under old maps, but is now the 61st, a district that includes the cities of Greendale and Hales Corners, and parts of Greenfield. This is again a pickup opportunity for Democrats, but Donovan is far more well-known than your typical Assembly candidate.

Donovan served on the Milwaukee Common Council for 20 years, and ran two high-profile campaigns for mayor of Milwaukee, both times winning the primary to advance to the final two and losing in a general election landslide. Donovan has been on the move in recent years, to Greenfield after he retired from the Common Council, back to Milwaukee for his 2022 run for mayor, back to Greenfield to run for Assembly, and now again this year to run in the new 61st, as he was previously drawn into the Democratic-leaning 7th District. He launched his 2024 campaign at a bar outside of the district where he’s running. In the Assembly, Donovan has served as the Vice-Chair on the Committee on Local Government.

This again projects to be a remarkably close race, and it will be interesting to see how a slightly different district map might impact this toss-up race for this shifting Milwaukee County seat.

CNalysis: Tilt D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+5

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+1.7

District 85

D: Yee Leng Xiong

R: Patrick Snyder*

Central Wisconsin doesn’t include a whole lot of swing districts, but there’s one there now in the new 85th. This is one of the few districts on the map won by both Tony Evers and Ron Johnson in the 2022 midterm elections — Evers by 1%, Johnson by 3%. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump won this district by less than 200 votes.

Republican Patrick Snyder is the incumbent in the 85th, and he is actually moving to remain in the district. Snyder has served in the Assembly since 2017 and is currently the Chair of the Committee on Children and Families. He was a staffer for former congressman Sean Duffy. He has won re-election by double-digit margins every year since 2018.

Democrat Yee Leng Xiong is the challenger in this race, and were he to win, he’d make history as Wisconsin’s first Hmong state representative. Xiong has worked as the executive director of the Hmong American Center for the last decade, and is stepping down at the end of this year. He has served on the D.C. Everest Area School District school board since 2014, first elected when he was just 19 years old, and has served on the Marathon County Board since 2016. In a story at Madison 365 from earlier this year, he said that “one of my friends described me as annoyingly moderate.”

The New York Times featured this race in an extended feature story not long after maps were signed. The CNalysis projections puts this right at the center of the battle for Assembly control. If Xiong wins this race, it seems likely that Democrats will win a majority.

CNalysis: TOSS UP

Proj. margin: D+0.1

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+5.2

Wisconsin Eye interview:

More: Yee Leng Xiong on the Civic Media airwaves

District 88

D: Christy Welch

R: Ben Franklin

There are two districts in Brown County that could go a long way toward determining which party wins the majority in November. They are both part of State Senate District 30, another we’ve identified as a “toss-up.” Needless to say, the road to control of the Assembly goes through the Green Bay suburbs.

The 88th includes the cities of De Pere, Allouez and Bellevue, and is an open seat, following the pending retirement of Republican incumbent John Macco. There was a competitive GOP primary to find his potential replacement, and there, Ben Franklin (no, not that one) defeated Phil Collins (not that one, either), about 68% to 32%. Franklin is an Air Force veteran and a business owner. This is the first time he’s running for elected office.

The Democrat in the race is Christy Welch, who did not face a primary challenge. She is the Chair of the Democratic Party of Brown County, elected in 2022, and was a delegate at this year’s Democratic National Convention. She works in a leadership role at a Green Bay manufacturing company.

This is as much of a swing district as it gets in Wisconsin, another won by both Tony Evers (by about 3.5%) and Ron Johnson (by 2%) in 2022, and won by 0.5% by Donald Trump in 2020. Given this dynamic, and with no incumbent on the ballot, this one could truly go either way.

CNalysis: TOSS-UP

Proj. margin: D+1

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+4.2

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 89

D: Ryan Spaude

R: Patrick Buckley

This is another open seat in Brown County, and another toss-up district, but one ever-so-slightly to the left of District 88. In the 89th, Mandela Barnes won here in 2022 by less than 200 votes. This district includes the city of Ashwaubenon and western parts of Green Bay. The current representative of the 89th is Elijah Behnke, who is now running in District 6 under new maps.

The Democrat running here is Ryan Spaude, who is an Assistant District Attorney in the Brown County District Attorney’s Office. He has a focus on prosecuting drunk drivers. The Republican is Patrick Buckley, who has served as Chairman of the Brown County Board since 2010, following 15 years with the Green Bay Police Department.

This is the district that includes Lambeau Field. The road to the Assembly majority goes right down Lombardi Avenue.

CNalysis: Tilt D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+5

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+1.7

District 94

D: Steve Doyle*

R: Ryan Huebsch

This is a rematch of one of the closest races in the Assembly in 2022 — our “one genuine toss-up” in our preview two years ago — where Steve Doyle won re-election by about 800 votes in this key La Crosse area seat.

Doyle has served in the Assembly since 2011, after winning a special election called after Mike Huebsch (yes, Ryan’s father) joined Scott Walker’s administration as Department of Administration secretary. Doyle has since been re-elected to the Assembly six times. He has also served on the La Crosse County Board since 1986, including nearly a decade as chair. A 2020 Legislative Reference Bureau report said Doyle was the most bipartisan member of the Assembly.

Huebsch is running again after coming up short in his first run for public office two years ago. Before running, he was a legislative aide to now-congressman Scott Fitzgerald from his time as Senate Majority Leader, and later an aide to State Sen. Eric Wimberger of Green Bay. He currently works as the executive director of the Wisconsin Conservative Energy Forum. Huebsch recently got in some hot water over some now-deleted social media posts.

Wisconsin Watch took an in-depth look at this race in a recent feature story. Read it here.

CNalysis: Tilt D

Proj. margin: D+4

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+7

Wisconsin Eye interview:

The Close Races (4)

District 30

D: Alison Page

R: Shannon Zimmerman*

This is the closest district in Wisconsin to the Twin Cities in Minnesota. It’s only about a 20-minute drive from Hudson to St. Paul. So obviously, there’s a lot of influence from the large metro to the west, as this district is within the Minneapolis media market. Perhaps this proximity is why this district is a bit more purple than the many deep-red rural areas surrounding it. And this district has now changed a few times in redistricting, going from a R+4.5 seat in 2020 to a GOP+12 seat in 2022, as the maps advanced by Republicans after 2020 looked to shore up GOP support in suburban areas. Now, with new maps, this district is much closer to toss-up territory.

Republican Shannon Zimmerman is the incumbent in this race, and he’s served in this seat since early 2017, is a member of the Joint Committee on Finance. In late 2017, he lost in a special election primary for an open State Senate seat to then-state Rep. Adam Jarchow, who went on to lose to Democrat Patty Schachtner. He’s also a business owner and executive with several different companies, and owned a winery with his family called Belle Vinez Winery, which they sold in 2022.

The Democratic challenger is Alison Page, whose career has been in health care, as a nurse and later as the CEO of Western Wisconsin Health for 13 years. She also currently serves on the River Falls School District board. She ran for Assembly in 2022, and lost to Republican Warren Petryk.

CNalysis: Lean R

Proj. margin: R+2

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+5.2

District 51

D: Elizabeth Grabe

R: Todd Novak*

For the last several election cycles, one of the top targets for a seat for Democrats to flip has been the one represented by Todd Novak. And over and over again, Novak keeps winning. He was first elected in 2014, and is in his fifth term. He won three of those elections by less than 1,000 votes. But perhaps his winning streak is coming to an end. Novak also served as the mayor of the town of Dodgeville since 2012, but lost his bid for re-election in April in a race that was not all that close. In the Assembly, Novak is the Chair of the Committee on Local Government. Novak is also the first openly gay Republican elected to the state legislature.

He’ll face Democratic challenger Elizabeth Grabe, a real estate agent and farm manager. This is her first time running for elected office. She’s involved in the Mount Horeb Rotary Club and is a citizen member of the Mount Horeb Sustainability & Natural Resources Committee.

This district now includes part of Dane County, and in a fascinating multi-media piece, Isthmus and WORT-FM collaborated on an in-depth story on the new district and its impact on civic engagement.

Novak has proven resilient before, and this race should be closer than the math suggests, but this might be the most difficult Assembly race he’s faced yet. If Democrats are going to flip the Assembly, this is a seat they’ll need to win.

CNalysis: Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+9

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+10.1

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 91

D: Jodi Emerson*

R: Michele Magadance Skinner

Western Wisconsin includes many of the swingiest areas in the state of Wisconsin, and that purple nature of the region is better reflected under new maps. Previously, the area around Eau Claire was drawn to have one safe Democratic seat surrounded by several deep-red Republican seats. Now, that’s different. There are now three competitive districts in and around Eau Claire County and the Chippewa Valley. The 91st includes much of the eastern part of Eau Claire County, and actually becomes far less Democratic-leaning than it has been in previous years, but still with a clear blue lean.

This district is represented by Democrat Jodi Emerson, who has served in the Assembly since 2019, winning re-election by comfortable margins each time, now running for a fourth term. She is currently the Vice-Chair of the Speaker’s Task Force on Human Trafficking. In recent months, she’s been critical of the Republican-controlled Joint Finance Committee’s refusal to release millions in funding for health care facilities following closures in the region. She recently joined a bipartisan pro-democracy group, “democracyFIRST.” She’s also currently the state director for the National Foundation for Women Legislators.

She’ll be running against Republican Michele Skinner. Skinner is currently serving in her first term on the Eau Claire County Board, and was a chair on the Lake Altoona Rehabilitation and Protection District. She also worked in broadcast television for about 20 years, including at WEAU in Eau Claire.

CNalysis: Likely D

Proj. margin: D+10

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+9.7

More: Jodi Emerson on the Civic Media airwaves.

District 92

D: Joe Plouff

R: Clint Moses*

Of the three competitive seats in the Eau Claire area, the most right-leaning of the three is District 92, which now includes Chippewa Falls and Menomonie.

Republican Clint Moses of Menomonie is effectively the incumbent here, but previously he represented a much more red district to the west in the 29th. He is seeking this third term in office, and currently serves as the Chair of the Committee on Health, Aging and Long-Term Care. Moses is a chiropractor, and owns Red Cedar Chiropractic in Menominee. He is also a former member of the Menomonie School Board, and has been involved with the Community foundation of Dunn County and Rotary club of Menomonie. Moses was the coauthor of a bill in the most recent session to eliminate diversity, equity and inclusion efforts on college campuses.

He’ll face Democrat Joe Plouff, who won one of the closest races in the August primary, by less than 50 total votes over Clint Berg. Plouff previously served in the legislature about 20 years ago, from 1996 to 2004. He also served on the Menomonie City Council and Dunn County Board. He’s also a veteran with the U.S. Army, and worked at the Dunn County Health Care Center. He told the Eau Claire Leader Telegram earlier this year that Republicans controlling the Assembly “control it from the Milwaukee suburbs ignoring the real needs of rural Wisconsin.”

This district was won by both Tony Evers (by 0.1%) and Ron Johnson (by about 6%) in the 2022 midterms. Moses is the favorite to win here, but if Plouff wins this seat, it likely would mean Democrats will have won the majority in the Assembly.

CNalysis: Likely R

Proj. margin: R+4

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+8.5

More: Joe Plouff on the Civic Media airwaves

The Safe Seats

The Safe Democrats (27)

The Probably Safe Democrats (13)

District 13

D: Robyn Vining*

R: Tom Michalski*

The boundaries of the 13th have moved around quite a bit in recent years. It flipped from red to blue in 2020 when now-Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez won by a less than 2% margin over now-State Sen. Rob Hutton. But in post-2020 redistricting, Republicans dramatically changed the composition of this district, making it far more Republican-leaning. In our 2022 guide, we referred to this one as “The Ridiculously Gerrymandered Open Seat.” Republican Tom Michalski went on to win, flipping this back from blue to red.

Now, this is a rare race with two incumbents running against each other, having been drawn into the same district with the new maps. Michalski, of Elm Grove, is the District 13 incumbent, and Democrat Robyn Vining, of Wauwatosa, is the District 14 incumbent.

Michalski is a volunteer firefighter and a member of the Waukesha County Technical College Board. He also serves on the Waukesha County Board and the Elm Grove Board of Trustees. In the Assembly, he’s the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Workforce Development and Economic Opportunities. He was challenged in the primary by Republican Patti Granger, but Michalski won with more than 80% of the vote.

Democrat Robyn Vining of Wauwatosa was the first Assembly representative to flip a seat from red to blue under gerrymandered maps, when she won a narrow victory in 2018. Republicans targeted her in 2020, but she won by an even larger margin. She is now the Chair of the Milwaukee delegation, and in the Assembly, served on the Speaker’s Task Force on Childhood Health.

This is a likely pick-up opportunity for Democrats, as the western suburbs, Wauwatosa in particular, have been shifting significantly to the left in recent election cycles.

CNalysis: Very Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+19

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+15.1

Wisconsin Eye interview

More: Robyn Vining on the Civic Media airwaves

District 14

D: Angelito Tenorio

R: Jim Engstrand

I: Steven Shevey

Under old maps, the city of West Allis was carved up into several different districts. But now, most of the city is located within the new 14th. Like many Milwaukee County suburbs, this district has a Democratic lean. With the current District 14 incumbent, Robyn Vining, drawn into the 13th, that makes this one an open seat.

There was a competitive Democratic primary in August for this race, and Angelito Tenorio came out ahead, winning 37% of the vote, besting Nathan Kieso (34%) and Brady Coulthard (29%). Tenorio served in the Wisconsin Army National Guard from 2015 to 2018, and served a partial term on the West Allis Common Council from 2020 to 2022. He also ran for State Treasurer in 2022, coming in third in the Democratic primary.

The Republican running in this open seat is Jim Engstrand, a military veteran. Engstrand previously ran for State Senate in 2020, coming in fifth in the Republican Primary in District 28. He also ran for Congress in Texas twice, neither time gaining more than 10% of the vote in the Republican primary.

There is also an independent candidate running for Assembly in this district, Steven Shevey. In 2020, he ran for Assembly in the Republican primary, coming in third, and in 2018, ran for Assembly as a candidate from the “Moderation Party,” coming in fourth.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+13.5

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 40

D: Karen DeSanto

R: Jerry Helmer

The new 40th is located northwest of Dane County, including the cities of Baraboo and Portage. It is similar to the old 81st District, represented by Dave Considine, who is retiring after a decade in the Assembly.

Karen DeSanto is the Democratic candidate in this district after winning the primary with about 53% of the vote, defeating Brad Cook (23%) and Kyle Kunicki (24%). DeSanto is the former CEO of Boys & Girls Clubs of West Central Wisconsin. She also worked as a circus clown for three decades in her hometown of Baraboo, the city where the Ringling Brothers Circus was founded in the late 1800s. A clown in the State Assembly? She’ll fit right in.

The Republican running here is Jerry Helmer, the chairman of the Republican Party in Sauk County. Sauk is a bellwether county in Wisconsin, having voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020. Helmer was recently featured in a story on Wisconsin politics in the Financial Times.

CNalysis: Very Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+15

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+10.6

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 43

D: Brienne Brown

R: Scott Johnson*

This is another Dane County-adjacent district where Democrats have a clear advantage. This district includes all of the city of Whitewater. Under previous maps, there was a line drawn right down the middle of the UW-Whitewater campus, creating two Republican districts.

The Republican running here is Scott Johnson, more of a moderate, who bucked the party when he won a primary in 2022, criticizing the state GOP over not accepting the outcome of the 2020 election. He won an extremely close race in 2022, by less than 300 votes over Democrat Don Vruwink. Before his term in the Assembly, Johnson served on the Fort Atkinson School board for 15 years, including as board president. In the Assembly, he is the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Consumer Protection.

The Democratic candidate here is Brienne Brown, who has served three terms on the Whitewater Common Council. She also served on the Whitewater Library Board for more than a decade, and on the board of nonprofit Downtown Whitewater. She also worked at the Whitewater Community Foundation. Brown ran for Assembly in 2022, losing to District 31 representative Ellen Schutt.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+11.7

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 46

D: Joan Fitzgerald

R: Jenifer Quimby

This district is in much of eastern Dane County and includes the cities of Lake Mills, Cottage Grove and Fort Atkinson.

The Democratic candidate is Joan Fitzgerald, a retired public school teacher who previously served on the Jefferson County Board. She also was a member of the Jefferson Education Association, serving as president, vice president and treasurer. She was recently interviewed by Motherhood For Good’s Kate Duffy on Civic Media.

The Republican running is Jenifer Quimby, who currently serves as the mayor of the city of Waterloo. She has also served on the Waterloo City Council from 2008 to 2019 and also served on the school board.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+11.3

Wisconsin Eye interviews:

More: Joan Fitzgerald on the Civic Media airwaves

District 52

D: Lee Snodgrass*

R: Chad Cooke

Democrat Lee Snodgrass of Appleton is running for her third term in the Assembly. She’s the incumbent in District 57, but is drawn into the new District 52. She’s part of Democratic leadership in the Assembly as the Minority Caucus Sergeant At Arms.

She’ll face Republican Chad Cooke, a military veteran who also served a term on the Outagamie County Board, but lost a bid for re-election during the Spring Election in April.

Though Snodgrass is an incumbent, if she were to win this election, it would technically flip the district, and this is a clear pickup opportunity for Democrats.

CNalysis: Very Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+18

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+15.2

District 54

D: Lori Palmeri*

R: Tim Paterson

In 2022, Lori Palmeri won one of the most consequential races in the State Assembly, defeating Republican Donnie Herman to help block a Republican supermajority. Now, she’ll be running for re-election in a more favorable district that includes most of the city of Oshkosh, where she served as mayor from 2019 to 2023 before stepping down for her Assembly role.

The Republican running here is Tim Paterson, a military veteran who served in the Wisconsin National Guard from 1989 to 2017. He currently serves on the Winnebago County Board.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+11.1

District 65

D: Ben DeSmidt

R: Brian Gonzales

This is an open seat in the Kenosha area, following the pending retirement of Democrat Todd Ohnstad.

Democrat Ben DeSmidt won the primary election over Kyle Flood, gaining nearly 70% of the vote. DeSmidt is the owner of Union Park Tavern and Pavle’s Lounge in Kenosha, and is a former teacher at Carthage College. He also serves on the Gateway Technical College Board of Trustees. This is his first time running for elected office.

He’s running against Albert Brian Gonzales, who is a former police officer in Kenosha. Gonzales is the police officer who shot and killed Michael Bell Jr. in 2004, a controversial case that led to changes in the way fatal police shootings are investigated in Wisconsin. Gonzales was the subject of a $1.75 million wrongful death settlement.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+15

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+11.9

District 66

D: Greta Neubauer*

R: David DeGroot

Greta Neubauer is the Minority Leader in the Wisconsin State Assembly, the first openly queer and youngest person ever to hold the position. She’s served in the Assembly since 2018, winning the Democratic primary for an open seat, and was elected Minority Leader in late 2021. Her job now is to win a majority there for the first time since the 2008 election, which could make her Assembly Speaker. In an interview with The Recombobulation Area at the DNC in Chicago, she predicted that Democrats would win 52 seats and flip the chamber.

She’ll be running against David DeGroot, the Village President in Mount Pleasant, where he’s served since 2017. DeGroot was among the main local-level backers of the deal to bring Foxconn to Wisconsin, and was part of the infamous golden-shovel groundbreaking in 2018. After that plan has flamed out spectacularly and changed dramatically, with Microsoft now leading development in the region, Racine and Mount Pleasant have continued to be at odds over water and wastewater agreements made during the Foxconn deal.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+11.2

More: Greta Neubauer on the Civic Media airwaves

District 71

D: Vinnie Miresse

R: Bob Pahmeier

This is a Democratic-leaning seat in Stevens Point and central Wisconsin that is open after State Rep. Katrina Shankland opted to run for Congress, losing in the Democratic primary to Rebecca Cooke.

Vinnie Miresse is running to keep this seat in Democratic control. He has served on the Portage County Board since 2017, and was just re-elected earlier this year to another two-year term. He chairs the Solid Waste Management Board and the Portage County Healthcare Center committee. He was recently in Wausau during a campaign visit from Gov. Tim Walz, which Civic Media covered.

He’ll face Republican Bob Pahmeier, an Army veteran who recently retired after 26 years in various roles in the Federal Bureau of Prisons. This is the first time he’s running for elected office.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+15

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+11.9

District 93

D: Christian Phelps

R: James Rolbiecki

Of the three competitive Eau Claire area seats, this is the most Democratic-leaning. This will also be an open seat after Republican incumbent Warren Petryk chose to retire.

Christian Phelps won the primary to be the Democratic candidate in this race, defeating Nickolas Butler in a narrow victory by about 300 votes. Phelps has worked as the communications director for the Wisconsin Public Education Network and is on the board of trustees of the Eau Claire Public Schools Foundation.

The Republican running is James Rolbiecki, who currently serves on the Town of Washington Town Board.

CNalysis: Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+12

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+12.5

District 95

D: Jill Billings*

R: Cedric Schnitzler

The La Crosse area is one of the swingiest in the state, and with new maps, now includes three competitive districts. Democrat Jill Billings is the incumbent in this race. She’s served in the Assembly since 2011, and was on the La Crosse County Board from 2004 to 2012. She is part of Democratic leadership as the Minority Caucus Vice-Chair.

She’ll face Republican Cedric Schnitzler, a former dairy farmer who currently serves as the Chair of the Monroe County Board, where he has served “on and off” for the past 30 years.

CNalysis: Likely D

Proj. margin: D+11

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+10.9

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 96

D: Tara Johnson

R: Loren Oldenburg*

Republican Loren Oldenburg is the incumbent in this race, and has served in the Assembly since 2019. But with new maps, this is a far more blue district than what he’s represented in the past. He’s currently the Chair of the Committee on Environment and Vice-Chair of the Committee on Agriculture.

He’ll face Democrat Tara Johnson, who is the executive director of the United Way of La Crosse, and a member of the La Crosse County Board, where she has served for 20 years and became the first woman to serve as Chair, serving half of the time in that position. She was considering a run for Congress against Derrick Van Orden, but opted instead to run for Assembly under new maps. She won a competitive primary in August, defeating Steve Campbell with more than 70% of the vote.

CNalysis: Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+13

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+13.3

Wisconsin Eye interview:

More: Tara Johnson on the Civic Media airwaves.

The Very Safe Democrats (14)

District 7

D: Karen Kirsch

R: Lee Whiting

This will be an open seat after Democratic incumbent Daniel Riemer chose not to seek re-election.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+28

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+20.2

District 9

D: Priscilla Prado

R: Ryan Antczak

This will be an open seat after Democrat Marisabel Cabrera was elected to Milwaukee Circuit Court earlier this year. Republican Ryan Antczak is currently facing criminal charges after making false statements during a bid for Milwaukee Common Council earlier this year.

CNalysis: Solid D

Proj. margin: D+46

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+45.0

District 12

D: Russell Goodwin

R: NO CANDIDATE

I: Deanna Alexander

Russell Goodwin won a four-candidate primary in August, winning 33% of the vote over Brandon Willford, Katrina Blossom Morrison and Decorah Gordon. There is no Republican running in this race, but Deanna Alexander, a Milwaukee County supervisor, is running as an independent.

CNalysis: Solid D

Proj. margin: D+68

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+58.7

District 18

D: Margaret Arney

R: Kevin Anderson

This will be an open seat after Democrat Evan Goyke was elected Milwaukee City Attorney.

CNalysis: Solid D

Proj. margin: D+78

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+67.5

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 20

D: Christine Sinicki*

R: Mike Moeller

CNalysis: Solid D

Proj. margin: D+25

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+25.1

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 23

D: Deb Andraca

R: Laurie O’Brien Wolf

CNalysis: Solid D

Proj. margin: D+28

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+25.8

Wisconsin Eye interview:

More: Deb Andraca on the Civic Media airwaves.

District 42

D: Maureen McCarville

R: Rebecca Witherspoon

CNalysis: Very Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+20

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+18.1

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 44

D: Ann Roe

R: Bruce Danielson

District 44 includes much of Janesville, and is an open seat following the retirement of incumbent Democrat Sue Conley. The Democratic primary for this open seat was a competitive one, with Ann Roe defeating Catherine Myers, 54% to 46%.

Roe is a small business owner in the education field, a part-time teacher at UW-Whitewater, and a community leader in Janesville, serving on several nonprofit boards. In 2022, she ran for Congress in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, losing to incumbent Republican Bryan Steil, 54% to 45%.

Danielson is a Janesville police officer making his first run for elected office.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+17.8

Wisconsin Eye interview:

More: Ann Roe on the Civic Media airwaves.

District 48

D: Andrew Hysell

R: Lisa Rubrich

Democrat Andrew Hysell won a five-candidate primary with 32% of the vote. This is an open seat after Democrat Samba Baldeh ran for State Senate, losing in the primary.

CNalysis: Solid D

Proj. margin: D+48

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+38.4

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 50

D: Jenna Jacobson*

R: Rich Johnson

CNalysis: Very Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+20

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+18.5

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 64

D: Tip McGuire*

R: Ed Hibsch

This will be the third consecutive election where Tip McGuire faces Ed Hibsch in the race for the 64th, located in Kenosha County. Republicans have been faring better in Kenosha County as of late, but that hasn’t been the case in this district as of yet, with McGuire winning by double-digit margins both times.

McGuire became a member of the powerful Joint Committee on Finance in the most recent session, and has been in the Assembly since 2019. Hibsch is the owner of a ride service small business that operates in the Kenosha and Racine area.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+12.2

District 73

D: Angela Stroud

R: Frank Kostka

This is an open seat after first-term Republican Angie Sapik chose not to run for re-election in this more Democratic district under new maps. This district served as one of the prime examples of gerrymandering in 2020, where boundaries were drawn to give Republicans an advantage in this typically blue district in the far northwest corner of the state, and Sapik won by a less than 2% margin. Now, Democrats are favored to win this seat back. Angela Stroud, a professor at Northland College, won the August primary to be the Democratic candidate in this district.

CNalysis: Very Likely D (FLIP)

Proj. margin: D+23

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+22.7

District 80

D: Mike Bare*

R: Bob Relph

CNalysis: Solid D

Proj. margin: D+52

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+49.3

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 90

D: Amaad Rivera Wagner

R: Jessica Henderson

While two of the three Green Bay area Assembly seats are projected to be toss-ups, this is the most Democratic-leaning in the area, encompassing most of the city of Green Bay.

With Democratic incumbent Kristina Shelton not seeking re-election, Amaad Rivera Wagner is running to keep this district blue. He is currently the chief of staff to Green Bay Mayor Eric Genrich, and is also the co-chair of the Greater Green Bay chamber’s Diversity and Inclusion Task Force. He’ll face Republican Jessica Henderson, a political newcomer who has worked as a case manager.

CNalysis: Very Likely D

Proj. margin: D+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+12.3

The Safe Republicans (44)

The Probably Safe Republicans (4)

District 1

D: Renee Paplham

R: Joel Kitchens*

In Wisconsin, the door is swinging — Door County, that is, as a swing county on the state’s election map. The county was won by Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and was a Tony Evers – Ron Johnson county in the 2022 midterms. It was also won by Tammy Baldwin in both 2012 and 2018, and won by Scott Walker each time he was on the ballot.

This district includes more than swingin’ Door County, though, it also includes all of much more red Kewaunee County, making it a Republican advantage seat. The current incumbent is Joel Kitchens, who has served in the Assembly since 2015. He’s currently the Chair of the Committee on Education and the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Environment.

Kitchens faced controversy last year after comments he made on abortion rights. Kitchens is a veterinarian, and during a public hearing on an abortion-related bill, he cited his experience in his veterinary career to say abortion isn’t health care, saying “I think I know mammalian fetal development better than probably anyone here.” He received national criticism for comparing women to farm animals. See that clip from Heartland Signal here.

The Democratic candidate in this race is Renee Paplham, a political newcomer who works as a caregiver to people with special needs, and as a mediator at the Mediation Center of Greater Green Bay.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+18.3

Wisconsin Eye interviews:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOm3yRTgodE

More: Renee Paplham on the Civic Media airwaves.

District 22

D: Dana Glasstein

R: Paul Melotik*

The WOW counties have been shifting significantly in recent years, with Ozaukee County emerging as the most left-leaning of the three. It would not be outside the realm of possibility to see the county won by a Democrat atop the ticket, be it Kamala Harris or Tammy Baldwin. This district does not have some of the more liberal areas of the county, however, and does include parts of far redder Washington County.

The incumbent in this race is Paul Melotik, who won a special election in 2023, but underperformed expectations, winning a very Republican seat by a less than 8% margin. He also previously served on the Ozaukee County Board.

The Democratic challenger here is Dana Glasstein, a teacher in the Wisconsin Technical College system, who has been active in the Mequon-Thiensville School District. This is her first time running for elected office.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+15

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+18.0

District 49

D: Scott Walker

R: Travis Tranel*

Once again, there is a Scott Walker running for office in Wisconsin. But no, it’s not the former governor, and he’s also not a Republican. The Democratic Scott Walker — whose website can be found at theotherscottwalker.com — is a doctor who runs a local medical clinic. A recent AP story on this other Walker took a closer look at him and this race. The story also notes an incident with the other Walker where he was charged with pointing a shotgun at his housekeeper in 2018.

The Republican incumbent in this race is Travis Tranel, who has served in the Assembly since 2011. He is currently the Chair of the Committee on Agriculture.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+14

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+17.9

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 82

D: Kevin Reilly

R: Scott Allen*

The new 82nd district now includes most of the city of Waukesha. Incumbent Republican in this race is Scott Allen, one of the more far-right members of the Assembly, serving since 2015. This will be only the second time he’s faced a Democratic opponent in a run for re-election. Allen has sided with election deniers on many occasions in the most recent session. He also made national news in 2019 by putting forth a list of 10 people to honor for Black History Month, most of whom were white.

The Democrat running is Kevin Reilly, who won the primary over Samuel D’Amico, 55% to 45%. Kevin Reilly is the brother of Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly, a former Republican who disavowed the party after the events of Jan. 6. Kevin Reilly is a mental health professional who has also worked as his brother’s camapign manager.

This is still a GOP-leaning seat, but it will likely be the closest general election contest Allen has faced in the Assembly.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+13

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+15.0

The Very Safe Republicans (40)

District 2

D: Alicia Saunders

R: Shae Sortwell*

Shae Sortwell was investigated for allegations of felony child abuse in 2013, the Green Bay Press Gazette reported in 2021. One of his children had bruises that concerned a relative so they contacted police, who recommended he be charged with a felony. The Brown County District Attorney never charged him. Sortwell quoted the Bible to police in defending striking his child with an object.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+22

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+25.6

Wisconsin Eye interview:

More: Alicia Saunders on the Civic Media airwaves.

District 3

D: Jason Schmitz

R: Ron Tusler*

After the 2020 presidential election, Tusler, then the chair of the Committee on Campaigns and Elections, held an invite-only hearing to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election results.

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+23

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+27.0

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 4

D: Jane Benson

R: David Steffen*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+27

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+32.0

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 5

D: Joy Goeben*

R: Greg Sampson

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+28

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+24.5

District 6

D: Shirley Hinze

R: Elijah Behnke*

On the Republican side of this race, two incumbents faced off in the primary, and current 89th District representative Elijah Behnke defeated 6th District incumbent Peter Schmidt. Two years ago, in my legislative election preview, Schmidt had a category all his own as the “candidate facing a whole bunch of controversies.”

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+31

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+35.4

District 15

D: Sarah Harrison

R: Adam Neylon*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+17

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+22.6

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 24

D: William Walter

R: Dan Knodl

Knodl, currently serving in the Senate, opted to run for his old Assembly seat, defeating Republican incumbent Janel Brandtjen in the primary.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+17

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+21.5

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 25

D: Stephen Welch

R: Paul Tittl*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+17

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+19.0

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 27

D: Kay Ladson

R: Lindee Brill

This Republican primary was close, with Brill defeating Brian Hilbelink by less than 250 votes.

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+30

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+35.0

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 28

D: Danielle Johnson

R: Rob Kreibich

Kreibich won the Republican primary by about 40 votes over Brady Penfield.

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+27

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+32.7

District 29

D: Terry Schoonover

R: Treig Pronschinske*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+23

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+30.4

District 31

D: John Henderson

R: Tyler August*

Tyler August is among the Republican leaders in the Assembly, and is thought to be the potential successor to Robin Vos as Assembly Speaker if the GOP maintains control of the chamber. August moved into this district after being drawn into the 32nd, and incumbent Republican Ellen Schutt announced she would not be seeking re-election in a primary against August.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+20

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+26.3

District 32

D: Michael Dhindsa

R: Amanda Nedweski*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+28

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+31.2

District 33

D: Alan Kuspik

R: Robin Vos*

Robin Vos is the longest-serving Assembly Speaker in state history. He was going to face a challenge in the Republican primary from Andrew Cegielski, but he dropped out of the race less than two weeks after announcing his candidacy (he had three OWI’s and multiple disorderly conduct charges). However, Cegielski still received more than 30% of the vote in the primary.

There’s a lot to discuss when it comes to Vos, so it’s a pretty safe bet to expect another column on the Assembly Speaker at The Recombobulation Area before Election Day.

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+28

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+32.8

District 34

D: Dennis Nitzel

R: Rob Swearingen*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+19

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+22.3

District 35

D: Elizabeth McCrank

R: Calvin Callahan*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+30

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+33.5

District 36

D: Ben Murray

R: Jeffrey Mursau*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+35

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+37.6

District 37

D: LaToya Bates

R: Mark Born

Mark Born won a Republican primary handily, but it was a bit surprising to see one of the co-chairs of the powerful Joint Finance Committee challenged and see that challenger gain more than 30% of the vote.

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+26

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+26.4

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 38

D: Izzy Hassey Nevarez

R: William Penterman*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+28

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+31.4

District 39

D: Chris Gordon

R: Alex Dallman*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+32

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+36.0

Wisconsin Eye interviews:

District 41

D: Julia Henley

R: Tony Kurtz*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+15

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+20.2

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 55

D: Kyle Kehoe

R: Nate Gustafson

Mike Schraa has represented the 53rd District for more than a decade, but under new maps, he was paired with fellow Republican Nate Gustafson, who defeated Schraa by a more than 11-point margin in the August primary.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+18

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+21.7

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 56

D: Emily Tseffos

R: David Murphy*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+26

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+30.0

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 57

D: Ruth Caves

R: Kevin Petersen*

Petersen is the current incumbent in District 40, but his hometown of Waupaca is in District 57 in new maps. Most new districts drawn are pick-up opportunities for Democrats, given the nature of previous gerrymandered maps, but this one is technically a pickup opportunity for Republicans, and a likely one.

CNalysis: Solid R (FLIP)

Proj. margin: R+33

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+36.8

District 58

D: Deb Anderson

R: Rick Gundrum*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+39

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+42.4

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 59

D: Jack Holzman

R: Robert Brooks*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+49

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+50.3

District 60

D: Joe Lavrenz

R: Jerry O’Conner*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+16

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+17.5

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 67

D: Jeff Foster

R: David Armstrong*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+26

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+32.3

District 68

D: Richard Pulcher

R: Rob Summerfield*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+34

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+37.9

District 69

D: Roger Halls

R: Karen Hurd*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+39

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+44.0

District 70

D: Remy Gomez

R: Nancy VanderMeer*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+20

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+27.5

District 72

D: Suzanne Campbell

R: Scott Krug*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+20

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+26.1

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 74

D: Jeanne Rand Bruce

R: Chanz Green*

Green won the primary after a challenge from Republican Scott Harbridge, 56% to 43%.

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+18

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+22.4

District 75

D: Jane Kleiss

R: Duke Tucker

An open seat with the pending retirement of incumbent Republican Gae Magnafici. Tucker won a three-candidate GOP primary with 50% of the vote, over Jay Calhoun (30%) and Neil Kline (20%).

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+26

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+31.9

District 83

D: Jill Schindler

R: Dave Maxey*

CNalysis: Very Likely R

Proj. margin: R+19

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+24.6

District 84

D: Zach Roper

R: Chuck Wichgers*

Wichgers spoke at an event held by Christian nationalists at the state capitol in 2023.

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+39

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+42.8

District 86

D: John Small

R: John Spiros*

Two incumbent Republicans and one additional GOP candidate ran in the primary for this central Wisconsin seat, and Spiros won with 43% of the vote, defeating incumbent Donna Rozar (32%) and Trine Spindler (25%).

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+26

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+30.2

Wisconsin Eye interview:

District 87

D: William Switalla

R: Brent Jacobson

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+25

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+28.0

District 97

D: Beth Leonard

R: Cindi Duchow*

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+35

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+39.9

District 98

D: Del Schmechel

R: Jim Piwowarczyk

Along with running for Assembly, Republican Jim Piwowarczyk is the co-owner of right-wing news site Wisconsin Right Now.

CNalysis: Solid R

Proj. margin: R+37

Modeled 2022 outcome: R+42.2

The Uncontested Seats (16)

The Uncontested Democrats (14)

District 8

D: Sylvia Ortiz-Velez*

R: NO CANDIDATE

CNalysis: Uncontested D

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+60.8

District 10

D: Darrin Madison*

R: NO CANDIDATE

CNalysis: Uncontested D

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+71.0

District 11

D: Sequanna Taylor

R: NO CANDIDATE

CNalysis: Uncontested D

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+77.9

District 16

D: Kalan Haywood*

R: NO CANDIDATE

CNalysis: Uncontested D

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+81.4

District 17

D: Supreme Moore Omokunde*

R: NO CANDIDATE

CNalysis: Uncontested D

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+69.5

District 19

D: Ryan Clancy*

R: NO CANDIDATE

Ryan Clancy, who restarted the Wisconsin Socialist Caucus in the state legislature at the onset of his term in 2023, fended off a primary challenge from Democrat Jarrod Anderson, who was endorsed by Mayor Cavalier Johnson and County Executive David Crowley, winning with 55% of the vote.

CNalysis: Uncontested D

Modeled 2022 outcome: D+65.2

District 45

D: Clinton Anderson*

R: NO CANDIDATE

This is perhaps the most surprising uncontested race in the State Assembly. In our 2022 preview, this seat was on the list of “Close Races with Democratic Favorites.” The open seat in this Beloit area district was won by Democrat Clinton Anderson, who defeated Republican Jeff Klett by about a 12% margin.