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2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Voter Guide: Assembly District 51
Dan ShaferShare
This is part of The Recombobulation Area and Civic Media’s 2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Voter Guide. Read the first part of the series, “New Board, New Game,” here. See the full district-by-district breakdown of the Wisconsin State Senate here. See the comprehensive Voter Guide here.
R: Todd Novak*
For the last several election cycles, one of the top targets for a seat for Democrats to flip has been the one represented by Todd Novak. And over and over again, Novak keeps winning. He was first elected in 2014, and is in his fifth term. He won three of those elections by less than 1,000 votes. But perhaps his winning streak is coming to an end. Novak also served as the mayor of the town of Dodgeville since 2012, but lost his bid for re-election in April in a race that was not all that close. In the Assembly, Novak is the Chair of the Committee on Local Government. Novak is also the first openly gay Republican elected to the state legislature.
He’ll face Democratic challenger Elizabeth Grabe, a real estate agent and farm manager. This is her first time running for elected office. She’s involved in the Mount Horeb Rotary Club and is a citizen member of the Mount Horeb Sustainability & Natural Resources Committee.
This district now includes part of Dane County, and in a fascinating multi-media piece, Isthmus and WORT-FM collaborated on an in-depth story on the new district and its impact on civic engagement.
Novak has proven resilient before, and this race should be closer than the math suggests, but this might be the most difficult Assembly race he’s faced yet. If Democrats are going to flip the Assembly, this is a seat they’ll need to win.
CNalysis: Likely D (FLIP)
- Proj. margin: D+9
Modeled 2022 outcome: D+10.1
Wisconsin Eye interview:
