2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Voter Guide: Assembly District 21
Dan Shafer
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This is part of The Recombobulation Area and Civic Media’s 2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Voter Guide. Read the first part of the series, “New Board, New Game,” here. See the full district-by-district breakdown of the Wisconsin State Senate here. See the comprehensive Voter Guide here.
R: Jessie Rodriguez*
The math on this district suggests that this is in line for Democrats to flip the seat. Democrats have a clear advantage here based on the partisanship of the district and where it’s been shifting in recent years. CNalysis is projecting a Democratic victory here, and it’s a district that Mandela Barnes won by 5% and Tony Evers won by 9%.
But this is a district where the numbers don’t quite tell the full story. State Rep. Jessie Rodriguez is a stronger GOP incumbent than most. She has served in her district since 2013, has been in leadership positions in the party, and is a member of the Joint Committee on Finance. She has a good reputation, someone certainly not aligned with the more fanatical wing of Assembly Republicans. She was also born in El Salvador and is one of the few Republican people of color in the legislature. And as many other Milwaukee County districts have moved significantly in favor of Democrats in recent election cycles, Rodriguez has continued to win by strong margins. In 2022, under old maps, this was a district that Tony Evers and Ron Johnson each won by less than 5%, but Rodriguez won re-election by about an 8-point margin.
Under new maps, the composition of this district has changed somewhat, moving a few points to the left, but still in swing district territory. Oak Creek continues to be the main city this district is organized around, but previously it stretched west into redder territory near Franklin, and now, bends north toward Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport.
Rodriguez’ opponent is David Marsteller, who did not face a challenge in the primary. This is his first time running for office, but he’s been involved in politics for some time, dating back to 2008 as a member of the Obama for America campaign, and also in caucus chair roles within the Democratic Party of Wisconsin in recent years. He’s a member of the LGBTQ community and is married to Israel “Issy” Ramon, who currently serves as the Milwaukee County Register of Deeds. Marstellar is a heart transplant survivor and says this care was made possible by the Affordable Care Act, leading to his continued advocacy on health care issues.
CNalysis: Lean D (FLIP)
- Proj. margin: D+8
Modeled 2022 outcome: D+8.1
