2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Voter Guide: Assembly District 13
By Sage Weil
September 19, 2024 5:19 PM CDT
This is part of The Recombobulation Area and Civic Media’s 2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Voter Guide. Read the first part of the series, “New Board, New Game,” here. See the full district-by-district breakdown of the Wisconsin State Senate here. See the comprehensive Voter Guide here.
D: Robyn Vining*
R: Tom Michalski*
The boundaries of the 13th have moved around quite a bit in recent years. It flipped from red to blue in 2020 when now-Lt. Governor Sara Rodriguez won by a less than 2% margin over now-State Sen. Rob Hutton. But in post-2020 redistricting, Republicans dramatically changed the composition of this district, making it far more Republican-leaning. In our 2022 guide, we referred to this one as “The Ridiculously Gerrymandered Open Seat.” Republican Tom Michalski went on to win, flipping this back from blue to red.
Now, this is a rare race with two incumbents running against each other, having been drawn into the same district with the new maps. Michalski, of Elm Grove, is the District 13 incumbent, and Democrat Robyn Vining, of Wauwatosa, is the District 14 incumbent.
Michalski is a volunteer firefighter and a member of the Waukesha County Technical College Board. He also serves on the Waukesha County Board and the Elm Grove Board of Trustees. In the Assembly, he’s the Vice-Chair of the Committee on Workforce Development and Economic Opportunities. He was challenged in the primary by Republican Patti Granger, but Michalski won with more than 80% of the vote.
Democrat Robyn Vining of Wauwatosa was the first Assembly representative to flip a seat from red to blue under gerrymandered maps, when she won a narrow victory in 2018. Republicans targeted her in 2020, but she won by an even larger margin. She is now the Chair of the Milwaukee delegation, and in the Assembly, served on the Speaker’s Task Force on Childhood Health.
This is a likely pick-up opportunity for Democrats, as the western suburbs, Wauwatosa in particular, have been shifting significantly to the left in recent election cycles.
CNalysis: Very Likely D (FLIP)
- Proj. margin: D+19
Modeled 2022 outcome: D+15.1
Wisconsin Eye interview
