New poll finds Tammy Baldwin holds commanding lead over Eric Hovde

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin holds a commanding lead over Republican businessman Eric Hovde in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Wisconsin Watch poll conducted by The MassINC Polling Group and released on Monday.

Baldwin led Hovde 52% to 44% among 800 likely voters. That’s outside the survey’s margin of error of +/-3.8% and is her largest lead in recent polling of the battleground state. Only 2% of respondents said they were undecided.

The poll was conducted Sept. 12-18 by The MassINC Polling Group on behalf of Wisconsin Watch. Voters were reached via text message invitation to an online survey and by live telephone interviewers calling landline and cell phones. It was funded by a grant from the Knight Election Hub.

Baldwin has had the advantage consistently in a recent round of polls of Wisconsin. An Emerson College poll recently found her at 49% among likely voters and Hovde at 46%. The senator received 51% support compared with Hovde’s 48% in a Marist College poll, and Baldwin got 51% to Hovde’s 47% in a Quinnipiac University survey. In the most recent Marquette University Law School poll — the most closely watched poll in Wisconsin — Baldwin had 52% support among likely voters while Hovde received 47%. A Morning Consult poll has Baldwin leading Hovde 50% to 43%.

“Certainly you’d rather be in (Baldwin’s) position, given where the race is,” said Steve Koczela, president of The MassINC Polling Group. “She’s doing well among independents, and both her and Kamala Harris are actually drawing a few Republicans.”

The poll found Baldwin getting support from 12% of Republicans and 54% of independent voters. In comparison, Hovde had the backing of 39% of independents and just 2% of Democrats.

But, Koczela cautioned, “just because someone’s lead is outside the margin of error doesn’t definitely mean that they’re going to win.”

The MassINC Polling Group’s polling operation is rated 2.8 out of 3 stars by poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, ranking it among the top 20 most reliable polls in the country.

Baldwin also had a significant lead over Hovde among women (54% to 39%) and was neck and neck with Hovde among men (47% to 50%), the poll found. Baldwin has the advantage over Hovde among voters in all age groups: 18- to 29-year-olds (50% to 45%), 30- to 44-year-olds (58% to 37%), 45- to 59-year-olds (53% to 43%) and 60 and older (50% to 47%).

Among voters without college degrees, 49% of respondents backed Hovde, and 47% backed Baldwin. But among voters with a bachelor’s degree or more, Baldwin led 63% to Hovde’s 33%.

The poll also found Baldwin performing well with voters of all income levels. Among respondents earning less than $50,000 annually, Baldwin received 50% support, and Hovde had 48%. Among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000, Baldwin led 50% to 44%. She led 52% to 42% among voters earning $100,000 to $150,000 per year and 61% to 39% among respondents earning $150,000 or more annually.

Baldwin is also viewed favorably by substantially more voters than Hovde. Among those surveyed, the senator was viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 43%. Hovde was viewed favorably by 40% of respondents and unfavorably by 51%. 

Baldwin maintained an even larger advantage among women, 57% of whom viewed her favorably while 38% viewed her unfavorably. Only 35% of women viewed Hovde favorably while 55% viewed him unfavorably. Among men, 45% viewed Baldwin favorably while 49% viewed her unfavorably; 45% viewed Hovde favorably and 48% had an unfavorable view of him.

Hovde’s lagging favorability should be a concern for his campaign this close to the election, Koczela said.

“For other elections where both candidates have a 35% to 40% favorability rating, then you can both target so-called ‘double haters,’ where someone’s got to win the voters who turn out who don’t like either one,” Koczela explained. “But when you’re minus 11 and your opponent is plus (8), then that is definitely a problem.”

“It’s not a 100% guarantee that you’re going to lose that way,” Koczela continued. “There might be other reasons why someone would vote for you, but it’s definitely not the state that you would want.”

Baldwin and Hovde will have their sole debate on Oct. 18 at 7 p.m.

Toplines from the poll can be found here. Crosstabs from the poll can be found here.

This article first appeared on Wisconsin Watch and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.