Final Marquette poll of the 2024 campaign shows dead heat race between Harris and Trump in Wisconsin

The poll of the presidential race shows Kamala Harris with a one-point edge, and the Senate race shows Tammy Baldwin with a two-point lead.

The final Marquette University Law School Poll before Election Day shows an incredibly tight race in Wisconsin. The state is living up to its reputation as one of the most closely divided swing states in the nation. 

In the race for president, Vice President Kamala Harris has a one-point lead over former president Donald Trump among likely voters. 

Donald Trump (R): 49%

Kamala Harris (D): 50%

“It should not surprise anyone if Donald Trump wins. It should not surprise anyone if Kamala Harris wins,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School Poll, during the presentation of the results. The full results are available online here. 

A multi-candidate survey of the race showed Harris with a two-point lead over Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., with 5%, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver with 2%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 1%, and independent candidate Cornel West with 1%. 

“One of the serious uncertainties is how much of these 9% stick with one of these third parties, how many decide not to vote, and how many will vote for Harris or Trump once it comes to the end,” said Franklin. 

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin maintained a slight lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, but with a narrowing margin. Here are the new results:

• Eric Hovde: 49%
• Tammy Baldwin: 51%

The previous poll, which had results announced in early October, showed Baldwin with a seven-point advantage. 

On favorability, almost all of the candidates in the race for president or vice president, and the candidates for U.S. Senate, have net-negative ratings. 

• Harris: -5
• Trump: -14
• Vance: -4
• Walz: Even
• Baldwin: -5
• Hovde: -12

On which issue is the most important in the race, the economy rated at the top at 38%, followed by abortion policy at 15% and immigration and border security at 13%.

Franklin closed the presentation as he always does, reminding people that “Polls don’t vote. People do. The election is in your hands.”

Initial details from the poll release can be found on this twitter thread.

As always, there will be an in-depth breakdown of the results of this poll at The Recombobulation Area. Subscribe so it arrives in your inbox.