Wisconsin finally has new, fairer maps for its state legislature. And for the first time in a long time, either party could win the majority in the State Assembly.

At long last, there will be new, fairer maps for the Wisconsin State Legislature.

For more than a decade, the state has been under the grip of one of the most extreme partisan gerrymanders in the nation, warping Wisconsin’s politics in a myriad of ways, large and small. But now, with maps better reflecting the electorate of the state, there is a genuine opportunity to usher in a new era.

People voted, in election after election, to get to this moment. We are on the precipice of what has the potential to be Wisconsin’s most consequential state legislative election in nearly a generation.

Now, the simple reality of the voters choosing their representatives instead of representatives choosing their voters will be realized. For the first time in more than a decade, Republicans could win a majority in the State Assembly, and so could Democrats. That something seemingly this simple and this fundamental has been so difficult to achieve should tell you just how broken the politics in our state had become.

The journey to get here has been an arduous one, and as with so many things in the state, our politics in Wisconsin changed drastically after consequential victories in the 2010 election, where the GOP won control of the governor’s office, State Senate and State Assembly. It was after that election cycle that Republicans cemented their control of the state legislature through advancing maps outrageously tilted to one side. It would become more likely for Republicans to win a two-third supermajority than for Democrats to win a simple majority — here in a 50-50 purple state where statewide elections can often be decided by fractions of a percent. After those maps were installed in 2012, it wasn’t until 2018 that any Democratic candidate was able to flip a single red seat. Following the 2020 census, Republicans were able to push their gerrymander even further, gaining a supermajority in the Senate and nearly getting there in the Assembly, coming up just two seats short.

Throughout this time, legislative Republicans, led by Robin Vos — now the longest-serving Assembly Speaker in state history — have prioritized power consolidation at all costs, acting as if any instance of a Democrat exercising political power is in some way illegitimate. The Gerrymander boxed Democrats out of power in the legislature, and Vos and Republicans worked to govern this purple state as if it were instead deep red. Even though former governor Scott Walker was ousted in the 2018 election, losing to Democrat Tony Evers, Vos and the legislature were still essentially holding all the cards, remaining in control of the levers of power in the state even as, post-2016, Democrats and aligned candidates went on a winning streak, securing victories in 14 of 17 statewide elections.

That winning streak finally crested with Win No. 14 in the spring of 2023, when Janet Protasiewicz defeated Daniel Kelly in a race for an everything-on-the-line open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, flipping the court’s balance of power, a tectonic shift in Wisconsin politics. With this new 4-3 liberal majority, a fresh challenge to the constitutionality of the maps was brought forth, and the court ruled along ideological lines to strike them down on Dec. 22, 2023. A fraught (and somewhat discombobulating) process unfolded, where several parties involved submitted maps to be considered by Court-appointed redistricting experts, two right-leaning maps were tossed for being “partisan gerrymanders,” and Republicans eventually saw the writing on the wall and passed maps submitted by Gov. Evers, and after a tense period of uncertainty, the governor signed the new maps into law on the morning of Feb. 19.

That set the table for this election, this year, in 2024. This will be the first election to be held, post-Gerrymander.

In past iterations of this preview, we’ve talked about how Republicans had a real chance at a supermajority, or broke down whether or not Democrats would be able to win 40 of the Assembly’s 99 seats.

This preview series began in 2020, after an extended period of inaction by the Republican-controlled state legislature, during a moment of genuine crisis. We decided to preview every race on the ballot — all 115 of them. Using our own special blend of data, projections, analysis and reporting, we took a comprehensive look at what was transpiring in the campaign — in everything from close races to ones uncontested. Our 2022 preview series won a Milwaukee Press Club award for “Best Public Service Story or Series,” and gained national attention during the campaign.

This year’s preview will be a little different. Now, we’re looking at a whole new game with a brand new board. Finally — finally! — there are new, fairer maps in place in this election for the Wisconsin State Legislature. And that new board better reflects the actual political geography of the state, and makes it so that either party could win the majority.

The era of one-party rule in the state legislature is over.

That doesn’t mean Democrats are lined up to flip control of the Assembly or Senate. Far from it. But this year’s election will begin to bring us closer to how things should operate in our state — where either party could win a majority, and the legislature truly reflects the will of the people.

Mind you, this gets us closer, but not to the finish line, as the fight for fair maps — and a better process to get there — must continue. It shouldn’t require the herculean effort it did to overturn such outrageously gerrymandered maps. When the legislature returns anew next year, it should seek to enact lasting redistricting reforms to make the process truly nonpartisan, in a way that does not require constant court cases and endless partisan nonsense. There are far better ways we could be doing this.

And yet, at the same time, another Wisconsin Supreme Court race looms next spring, where the pending retirement of Justice Ann Walsh Bradley means the balance of power for the state’s highest court will again be at stake. Who knows what it might mean if a conservative justice is elected in April 2025?

Perhaps what this process of getting to new maps has reminded us more than anything, though, is that you cannot take any plays off. Every election matters, whether it’s for president or Wisconsin Supreme Court or your local alderman, and you should be voting every single time.

Of course, that also includes every last seat in Senate and Assembly, which The Recombobulation Area is previewing for the third consecutive election, now as part of Civic Media.

As you might expect, this year’s preview looks a bit different with these new maps. In both 2020 and 2022, there was just one (1) genuine toss-up race identified in the 99-seat State Assembly. For this year’s preview, we’ve identified eight (8) such races. Also in both 2020 and 2022, there were at least 10 races where Republicans ran uncontested with no Democratic opponent on the ballot. Now, Democrats have a candidate running in 97 of 99 Assembly districts, and in every last Senate district.

In the Senate, because of how districts are numbered — and the fact that the new maps that were ultimately adopted did not renumber districts — Republicans will almost certainly retain the majority in the upper chamber. As it stands, the balance is 22 Republicans to 10 Democrats, with one vacant seat (that is soon to be in Democratic control). But even-numbered districts not up until 2026 tip 12 to 5 in favor of Republicans. So, while it is highly likely that Democrats gain seats, Republicans are projected to keep control of the Senate, though no longer with a two-thirds supermajority.

The real intrigue, then, lies in the Assembly, where every seat is on the ballot and either party has a realistic path to the majority. On balance, though, Republicans enter this election as modest favorites to win control of the Assembly — I’d give them about a 60% chance to be in the majority come January 2025.

There are many factors here. The state is a toss-up in the presidential election, but down-ballot Republicans have historically out-performed the top of the ticket. Incumbency has also proven to be a significant factor in Wisconsin elections, and despite a wave of retirements and several GOP legislators being drawn in together in these new district maps, there are simply more Republican incumbents because of the outsized level of seats that they’d gained under The Gerrymander. There are a myriad of fundraising and financial considerations and outside group spending at play, too.

But Democrats, right now, have a lot of momentum on their side. The shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket has led to a surge in enthusiasm, and if that translates down-ballot, it could have a major impact on many of these races. Republicans, too, have been mired in a great deal of infighting this year, with repeated attempts to recall the Assembly Speaker. Those may have failed (as so many election denier-driven efforts have tended to) but this is perhaps revealing of certain frictions within the party and frustrations with their long-time leader.

While the overall balance of power is uncertain, Democrats are projected to gain a significant number of seats in the Assembly. In fact, they essentially already have gained one — the new District 62 in the city of Racine, where the Democratic candidate faces no Republican opponent.

Gone are the days when Republicans were a near lock to control 60 or more seats in the chamber. The majority will be decided by toss-up districts and close races, in districts in every corner of the state. Considering where we’ve been for so long, this does feel a bit discombobulating.

But let’s be clear: There is a real path to a Democratic majority in the State Assembly in this election. There is a potential outcome where, come January, Greta Neubauer is Assembly Speaker and Robin Vos is the Minority Leader. It will be up to the voters — especially those in swing districts in places like western Wisconsin, Green Bay and the Fox Valley, and the Milwaukee area suburbs — to determine the outcome.

But isn’t that how it should be, after all? The unknown of these maps is, in and of itself, a true achievement. The voters decide, not the malevolent, partisan cartographers.

For years, many have argued that because of The Gerrymander, that Wisconsin is not truly a democracy. That instead, given how egregiously the maps have been tilted to one side, that this is not an example of representative democracy, but an experiment in a version of minority rule.

That’s over now. Now, it will be up to the people of Wisconsin to choose the direction of the state’s future — race by race, vote by vote.

As it should be.

So, here at The Recombobulation Area — and now with Civic Media — we are previewing all 115 races on the ballot in the Wisconsin State Legislature. There will be an in-depth piece previewing the State Senate, and another previewing the State Assembly.

We’re using a combination of several factors for the preview, including our own original reporting and analysis, projections from state legislative analysis page CNalysis (which correctly projected 98 of 99 Assembly races in 2020 and 2022), statistics from our friend John D. Johnson of Marquette University, interviews conducted by Wisconsin Eye, and all kinds of content from across the Civic Media network.

Let’s recombobulate, once again.

COMING SOON: The Recombobulation Area and Civic Media’s 2024 Wisconsin State Legislature Election Preview.

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