Today, I'm delighted to be joined by Dan Schaefer, the founder and editor of the Recombobulation
Area, which is one more journalism prizes in Wisconsin than you can shake a stick at.
He's also now the political editor here at Civic Media, which was a great move by the
Civic Media folks.
I'm Matt Rothschild, of course, and welcome to this episode of the Wisconsin Forward podcast
on the Civic Media Radio Network.
Dan Schaefer, welcome.
Thanks so much for having me, Matt.
Always wonderful to join you in talks about politics.
Yeah, we can talk politics all day.
Let's give it a roll.
You wrote to your thought, David Crowley, Milwaukee County executive has the highest upside
of any candidate.
Why is that, Dan?
Well, I think David Crowley is somebody whose career I followed closely, being here in
the city of Milwaukee, in Milwaukee County.
And I've just thought of him as a rising star in the party for quite some time.
And he's a young guy, but he's been leading the largest county in Wisconsin for five
years now.
He's had some really important wins in the county.
The shared revenue deal that he was instrumental in championing was a really important one.
They've also just been able to get some things done in Milwaukee County that have been, I
think he's been building a resume of accomplishments there, some really smart under the radar stuff.
He's been the first Milwaukee County executive to champion affordable housing in the suburbs,
things like that that I think will really, you know, you go through the list and they've
really been able to accomplish a lot given some difficult circumstances there.
But I think Crowley, you know, as an executive of a large county and having experienced
in the legislature, you know, as a member of the state assembly for several terms, you
know, I think that gives him kind of a unique background.
And I do think that, you know, he would bring, you know, the type of generational shift
to Wisconsin.
And then I think many have been looking for since Tony Evers just made the decision to step
aside.
And that you've been calling for too.
And that I was calling for.
Yes.
I think, you know, I think the governor made the right decision as he so often has during
his two terms in office as governor and Wisconsin.
And I think that, you know, part of it is just having the voters decide and what's next
for the Democratic Party in Wisconsin.
And I think Crowley is, you know, a part of a group of really strong candidates.
I think that there's a really strong bench there for Wisconsin Democrats for those who
might be running for governor or who are running for governor.
But I think the potential that Crowley has is really stands apart.
I think he's, you know, when he ran from walkie-county executive five years ago, he really
built himself as a bridge builder.
And somebody who wants to get things done.
And he's had a more, you know, kind of pragmatic approach.
And I think he's also somebody who's tough to pin down in some sort of ideological, you
know, camp.
He's not a progressive.
He's not a moderate.
And, you know, I think he can speak to the big tent of the Democratic Party in ways that
a lot of other candidates might not be able to.
I think his challenge is going to be the name ID and, you know, perceived baggage that
might come from being in Milwaukee.
You know, I think if you talk to people about David Crowley in an around Milwaukee, people
are excited about him, excited about his candidacy, you know, think that it makes sense for
him to make the jump to run for higher office.
But sometimes when you bring up his name outside of Milwaukee, it's a little bit more
David who, you know, I don't know if he has the same type of name ID outside of the Milwaukee
market that you might need in a statewide race like this.
So I think his challenge is going to be how he's going to really introduce himself to other
parts of the state, whether it's Western Wisconsin or the Fox Valley or even Madison
in Dane County.
You know, I don't know how many people in Madison, Dane County know Crowley all that
well.
So I think, but, but again, I think he is, he is someone who, he's a really genuine authentic
guy.
And I think as a retail politician, he's really going to shine, you know, I did a live
podcast event in Milwaukee with him a couple of years back.
And before he took the stage at the event, he went to every table at the coffee shop at
Anadine and Walker's point that we had the event.
He went to every table and introduced himself and said hi to everybody and is cracking jokes
and smiling and having fun.
And I think he's kind of has that a level retail politician in, in his bag, I guess you
could say, but I think is going to be, you know, help him resonate, help his message resonate
with, with folks on the campaign trail and, you know, he's got strong connections to unions
and building trades and, and I think, you know, I think he is, could be a really, really
dynamic candidate in this race for Governor Wisconsin.
So the first candidate out of the gate is Lieutenant Governor Sarah Rodriguez.
What do you make of her chances?
Yeah, I think she's, you know, the way I characterized the field as it seems to be shaping
up right now is they're kind of a big four.
And that big four being like David Crowley, as I mentioned, along with Josh Call, Attorney
General, who has yet to formally announce or really hint at what he's going to do, but
he's made it really no secret over the past few years that he'd be interested in a run
for Governor, if that opportunity were to present itself.
And then she called a Royce, who stayed Senator from the Madison area, made some news
on civic media a couple of weeks back on the Todd Alba show, talking about how she is likely
to run for Governor.
So I would say Rodriguez Crowley, Royce and Call would be kind of the big four out of the
gate.
And like you mentioned, Sarah Rodriguez is, you know, the first out of the gate candidate,
there was kind of some, some humorous nonsense with the timing of when she uploaded her,
video, but I think that notwithstanding, I think she's a strong candidate as well.
And I think, you know, the her background is interesting too, you know, you look at
the last five years of what she's been able to do.
In 2020, she ran for a state assembly and flipped a suburban seat from red to blue, one
of the only Democrats to do that under the Robin Voss, Jerry Mander, that really dominated
politics in Wisconsin for a decade.
And so the fact that she was able to, you know, flip that seat at a really critical time,
and, you know, then making the jump to joining Tony Evers on the ticket in 2022.
And I think, you know, I was at a ton of campaign rallies last year across Wisconsin.
And she was at many of them and she's kind of got into the rotation of that, you know,
kind of the list of speakers that would speak before the headliner.
And I think over the course of the year, I think she's gotten much better as a public
speaker and really has a command of the room and is engaging and, and I think she can
be a really strong candidate too.
And I do wonder if, you know, the fact that she's from Brookfield, you know, we haven't
historically had a lot of Democrats from Brookfield.
And I think maybe she can speak to some of those voters who, you know, might be part of
that shift that's been happening in parts of the state where, you know, suburban areas,
more highly educated, more populated areas of the state have been shifting, more democratic,
you know, really in the last 15 years, really, but, you know, in particular in the Trump
era, you know, her, I did some research on this.
The her hometown of Brookfield is one that Mitt Romney won nearly 68% of the vote in
in 2012.
And in last year, Donald Trump won the city with just over 51% of the vote.
So that's a part of the state that has shifted really significantly.
And I think her candidacy and her ascent is really a reflection of, you know, some
of those larger changes that we're seeing in state politics.
You wrote that you liked her video announcing her decision to run.
I actually wasn't very crazy about it.
I don't know.
Didn't like it as much.
No.
I thought it was a little hammy with her walking the whole time toward the camera for
one thing.
Yeah.
And then she said, you don't, you don't have time for a, I know you don't have time
for a busy video.
And then the video seemed a little busy to me with stray personal anecdotes like her
dog's name, Chico, or met her husband, Borum dancing, all those things bug me and dropping
the fact that she's a national merit scholarship saying her mom would make sure she'd said, I
don't know.
I wanted to cut to the chase.
You know, I'm an impatient person, Dan.
I don't know if you knew that about me, but I'm very impatient.
And also I wanted her to make a more direct pitch to the voter.
You know, here's what I'm going to do for you, the voter.
Instead, when she got to the issues, she just kind of threw them all together, strengthened
Medicaid, helped farmers, unions, small business people, teachers.
So I thought the pitch could have been a little stronger.
I know it was an introduction video, but still anyhow, it's just my own little, you know,
it's got that kind of classic Aaron Sorkin walk and talk with me there to it.
And I thought it was, I thought it was funny.
I thought it was, you know, had had some moments where she showed a little bit of a sense
of humor, which I think is a good thing in those types of ads.
I think overall, you know, what played pretty well, you know, here's a question.
I got, are you surprised that Governor Evers hasn't endorsed her?
What's, what's about that?
I'm not at all surprised by that.
No, I, I don't think I would not really expect him to endorse at all in this race.
Did they not have people that, did they not have a good relationship?
I, no, I don't think that's the case.
I mean, it seems like they've had, you know, a strong relationship and whatever,
but I just don't think that he historically has not really waited
into those types of waters of playing the kind of endorsement kingmaker in any of these.
Like even in, you know, the nonpartisan in name only race for state super intended,
you know, he didn't even endorse the, you know, kind of incumbent Democrat,
democratic endorsed candidate in that race.
So, you know, it just doesn't seem like the way that Evers, you know,
approaches things and you know, he's had, you know, he's obviously has, you know,
connections with, with Josh Coll or David Crowley or whoever it might be.
And I don't think he's going to, you know, put us on the scale for any of this.
I think on, on the right, you know, the, the Republican primary for this is,
all of it is hinging on who Donald Trump is going to endorse in that race.
And so I, I don't think the Democrats have the same issue where everything
in the party is beholden to one man.
I think for the Democrats, you know, it's this really unique
opportunity for, for voters to be the one to decide the path forward.
And that's a good thing.
I'll stay. Yeah, I'm, yeah, I'm all about, uh, having primaries,
having competitive primaries and letting the voters decide.
So you mentioned the state center, Kilda Royce, you know, in 2018,
she got into the race very late.
And I thought at the time that had she gotten in, uh, early,
that she might have been able to win the thing.
I thought she did a great job in the campaign.
Uh, she's a terrific debater.
Um, how do you assess her abilities here?
Yeah, I think she's another strong candidate.
Um, and, and I think it is, uh, a point in her favor,
just seeing how active and, and state government that she's been in the years
since that 2018, uh, run for governor.
You know, the fact that she is, uh, she ran for state senate in 2020,
became a member of the joint finance committee, um, has had some really
strong moments on joint finance and throughout, you know, kind of budget
processes and, and some of the more high profile debates that we've seen in
the state over the past few years.
And, and I think, uh, the fact that she, you know, in that 2018 race,
she got endorsements from a lot of pro choice reproductive rights groups,
um, that backed her candidacy.
I wonder if that's going to be, uh, the case again, uh, you know,
if she gets the Emily's lists of the world to, to endorse her out of the
gate, I think that would be a really strong point in her favor.
We know how salient, uh, the abortion and reproductive rights issue has
been in statewide races in Wisconsin, particularly since the doubt decision,
you know, I think a lot of the, the, the Supreme Court races that have happened
since then have, have really leaned on, um, you know, that issue as one that
has been very motivating to a lot of voters across the state.
Uh, so I do think that could be, you know, kind of a, you know, a, a, a platform
for her, uh, that to set herself apart in a potentially corroded primary.
Um, I do wonder like a lot of, you know, the, the list of candidates does
lean kind of Milwaukee and Madison heavy, right?
So I do wonder, uh, you know, she's running one of the safest blue districts,
uh, in Wisconsin is that message going to translate to other parts of the
state. I think that's, you know, one of the big questions for her.
And, you know, I wonder what kind of ideological approach that she might
take, which you want to stake out a lane, uh, as more of a progressive.
Does she want to be more of a, you know, kind of, uh, moderate or consensus
builder or whatever it might be?
I, I'm interested to see the details of what her approach is going to be.
When, if and when she formally launches, and one thing that she did do to help
herself, I think, was to get out of Madison.
She went to Richland Center.
For instance, when UW Richland Center was under attack.
And by the way, another, uh, hats off to Todd Albaugh for playing up that
huge problem of the defunding of her state, you know, university satellite
schools around the, around the state, especially Richland.
Nobody's had more to say about those two year universities than Todd Albaugh.
That's for sure. I'm Todd. It was great.
I remember I'm driving around.
I'm listening just as he's talking about it for the first time.
And it was just such great radio and such great reporting, actually.
But then, you know, Senator Kelderoy's got out there for one of those meetings
when Mark Lyne wasn't there, for instance.
Right. And that was really impressive.
Attorney General Josh Call, you mentioned him.
You know, I met a bar in Madison on the east side the other day.
And some guy who I didn't recognize, I'm embarrassed to say, he said,
hi, Matt, what's going on in the governor's race?
I hear Josh Call is not going to be in it.
I don't know what his sources are.
What are your sources?
Yeah, I'm not really sure. You know, it's, it's, it's kind of been quiet.
You know, I think a lot of these candidates are waiting to announce after Labor Day.
When maybe there's a little bit more of a focus.
I think, you know, August, dog days of summer, there, you know,
people are not really paying attention to politics necessarily all the time,
this time of year.
So I think, you know, whether it's Royce, Crowley, a number of these candidates,
I expect many of those announcements to formally happen after Labor Day.
But I also think that, you know, it's, it's Josh Call, you know,
you win two statewide races.
You're going to be on the short list here, right?
Yeah. And I think possibly at the top of the list, I think if he does announce,
I think he would start, probably start the race as the front runner.
You know, I've heard him speak a lot of times.
And I don't think his speaking abilities are all that great.
I mean, he leaves me cold.
You know, I go to these county, Democratic County events.
That's when I was at the Wisconsin democracy campaign.
And he'd, he'd be speaking and I just, he was just putting me to sleep.
But and the other thing against him is he didn't go after the false electors.
And there are a lot of us who wanted him to prosecute those false electors.
And so for the base, I'm not sure he's going to be that attractive,
even though he has been AG and, you know, been a good backstop against some horrible
policies and taking folks to court.
So I don't know.
Yeah, I, he's not the, he's not the sparkling speaker that some others
are might be on this list.
But I, but I also think, you know, as Tony Evers showed in his two terms,
you know, any, I think he even said this in his real is his election night's
victory speech in 2022, boring wins.
And so if, you know, maybe what people are looking for in this era of chaos
and the Trump administration, looking for somebody who isn't, you know,
might not be particularly flashy.
Somebody who has a legal background can have, can speak with some legal authority
on some of the issues between, you know, the state and federal government,
whatever that might be.
So I, I think Carl would probably start the race as a front runner.
But like you said, I think he wouldn't be an overwhelming one like the,
the not going after the fake electors with as aggressive as,
I think some people in the Democratic Party were hoping for, you know,
I think that's a point against him.
And, you know, he hasn't had all that many high profile moments
considering he's been statewide elected official for almost two full terms now.
So I think, you know, his name ID might not be quite as high, you know,
as some others who have, you know,
been made the jump from Attorney General to governor and in other states,
something like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, for example.
So here's someone you call a wild card.
And I have it under very good authority that this person is actually going to run for
governor, her name is state representative Francesca Haan.
Why is she a wild card?
I think Francesca Haan, she's somebody I've known for a while as well.
And she has been a guest contributor at the recombobulation area from time to time.
And I have so much respect for, for representative Haan and the work that she does.
But I think, you know, she would enter the race as a wild card because she is,
you know, she's a state assembly representative for Madison and making the jump
from a state assembly representative for Madison to a statewide candidate is a tall task.
But I also think that, you know, no one's going to work harder than she will in this,
in this type of run as well.
And I think if there is some sort of, you know, Zoraan Mamdami,
type of energy lurking among Democratic voters in Wisconsin,
I think they will look to representative Haan to seize that type of energy
because I don't think there is a, like, a clear progressive among those kind of big four candidates
that I talked about at the outset here.
So I think, you know, I was surprised to see the news that she was interested, frankly,
but I think, you know, it would throw a real curveball into the race,
but I think she would be a really, really fascinating candidate.
And I would be, I just absolutely love to see how she approaches this type of campaign.
Yeah, I mean, she'd be in the Mamdami AOC lane.
And I do think there is a hunger still out there among Democrats,
and certainly the progressive wing of the Democratic Party,
for someone who just lays it all out there and it's just a fighter for us.
And she could do that in a crowded field.
It's conceivable to me that she could win if the other, you know, high profile figures
kind of split the mainstream Democratic vote.
Molly Ivans used to say the great calmness from Texas during a primary vote,
your heart and in the actual final November race, vote your head.
But for a lot of progressive voting their heart, that could be Francesca Haan.
Could be, could be absolutely, you know, it's going to be really interesting
to see what her, her campaign is going to look like if and when it does take shape.
But I, but I think, you know, considering the fact that she is, again,
a state representative from Madison, making the jump to a statewide race, it's a lot,
you know, it's different from, you know, being attorney general
or being county executive of the most popular county in the state.
Or, you know, it's just a different level of a jump there.
So I, you know, I don't want to discount her as a candidate by any means,
but I just think it, you know, it probably a little bit longer odds for her
compared to some of the others in the field.
You know, when Evers got out, there were some other names being thrown around.
The one that sticks in my mind most is Ben Wickler.
But I haven't seen his name floating so much over the last, you know, 10 days or so.
Is he not serious about this?
You know, I, I would be surprised if he turned right around to run for governor right now.
You know, he just finished his term as the, for six years as leading the chair,
or as leading as chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin.
You know, he made that run for DNC chair early in the year.
And when I was doing some reporting around that, you know, about his interest in the race,
like I had a number of people tell me that he is interested in at some point
running in a statewide race in Wisconsin.
I just don't know if this is the moment for it.
But, you know, I certainly monitoring what he's up to.
You know, but I, I think if I were to guess, I think it would be more likely
that he makes a run for Senate in 2028.
Then he runs for governor in 2026 in 2028.
That'd be against Ron Johnson or whoever's on the Republicans.
Ron Johnson, I thought he was only serving two terms.
He's in his third term.
Now he'd be running for his fourth term then.
Yeah, yeah.
He probably, he'll probably come up with some sort of excuse saying like, well, I had to do it, you know,
just like he has the last couple of times and, yeah, I'd really like to retire,
but I need to run again.
Yeah, yeah, exactly any other Democrats we haven't mentioned.
Do you want to throw out who may throw their hand in the ring?
You know, there are a couple of names that have been mentioned.
You know, I think Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson had made some noise about
potentially running.
I would be, I'd be pretty surprised if that were to happen.
I don't think he and Crowley would both, it would make sense for both of them to run.
You know, their careers have been pretty tied together.
They came into office around the same time.
They're the same age.
They went to the same high school in Milwaukee.
Like there's, you know, there's a lot of similarities between the two,
but they are very different guys at the same time too.
But, but I think, I think it would be far more, obviously far more likely that Crowley runs.
And I think Johnson probably is smart enough to recognize that they would not both have
a path to victory if they were to run.
So I think it's probably more likely it's just Crowley there.
And then I think the other potential name, at least worth discussing,
is the former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes.
You know, he ran, came agonizingly close to defeating Ron Johnson in 2022.
You know, I think there his, if you look back at that campaign,
he probably both outperformed expectations,
you know, trying to unseat a two-term incumbent in Wisconsin and left some points
on the board with the campaign that he ran as well.
So I think, you know, it makes sense that he would, he would want another shot.
But, you know, I'm not really sure if that's the, if now is his moment for that.
You know, at the very early stages before, you know,
Evers made his decision.
I have been hearing that Barnes was not going to be in the mix for anything in 2026.
I think after the decision was made, he's, I think he's thinking about it a little bit more seriously.
But I, I think, you know, it would probably not make the most sense for him to run as well.
You say he left points on the board.
What do you mean by that, the, the ads that I hated or was there something else?
So some of those ads were a little rough.
But I thought, you know, there were, there was a moment in the campaign, like right after he won the primary,
well, you know, everyone dropped out and endorsed him.
So he kind of won by default in that primary.
And they need the campaign seemed really flat-footed to respond to what seemed like an inevitable onslaught of really ugly attacks
from the Johnson campaign and from his allies and, you know, just kind of the Uline and Hendrix
super PACs that were going to be throwing everything at him.
And I think they just did not really respond well to that.
And then they were playing from behind and I think they were a little bit too safe.
And I think there was parts of that campaign where they're, it just seemed like they were running against any generic
Republican and not the uniquely problematic Republican that Ron Johnson is in so many ways.
Not so that Elon and Hendrix, 30 million dollars of racist ads was just disgusting.
Yeah.
Well, let's take a look at the Republican field.
Yeah.
Tell me about that.
Yeah.
So I think before jumping into the candidates here, I think the main issue for Republican primary in Wisconsin right now is a Trump
endorsement is who Donald Trump is going to get behind in this type of race.
You know, we saw in the primary for the eighth congressional district a year ago, where Donald Trump endorsed kind of a relative
unknown in Tony weed over two state senators Roger Roth and Andre Jacques and weed one really decisively in that race.
So I think the same dynamic is at play here.
If you're going to have a multi candidate field for governor, a Trump endorsement is going to put any of these candidates over the finish line.
And so there's two candidates already running.
One is Washington County executive Josh Schoeman, the other is business executive Bill Barion.
I think the fact that the Republicans are still kind of searching for who their candidate might be reflects a little bit on how these two other campaign launches have gone.
I think, you know, Schoeman's a young guy is a hard worker.
He's he's going to get out there and get after it.
But I think, you know, the fact that he is not really his message is not really gotten picked up in the months.
He announced in May, you know, I don't think he's gotten like a ton of endorsements from within the Republican Party of Wisconsin.
It hasn't really built a ton of momentum.
We wrote a we published a piece of the recombobulation area from contributor Jordan Morales talked about how in 2022 at kind of the height of the black, you know, the defiant defund the police backlash.
Schoeman championed this police funding referendum in Washington County, which again is like a 70% Republican County, and he was not able to even get that past.
And he was peacocking around in the weeks before that election saying that, oh, Milwaukee is not going to not going to fund its police.
But here in Washington County, we're going to we're going to make it happen.
And he lost that one pretty decisively.
So it's not like he really reflects as some sort of master political operator waiting in the wings here.
But I think, you know, depending on who else runs, he could win a war of attrition, because I think he's doing better than Bill Barian, who his campaign launches has been pretty flat.
You know, I think Republicans and conservatives who are seeing the fact that he backed Nikki Haley in the Republican primary, you know, I think the Republican party in Wisconsin is pretty trumpier right now.
I don't think they're looking for the never trump Republicans the way that maybe they were in 2016 or something like that.
Oh, yeah, so I think his launch has been pretty bad.
Yeah, I laughed when I saw in your article about the governor's race that Bill Barian is being supported by the Winklevost twins who donated a million dollars to his back.
I didn't know that an interest here in Wisconsin.
Yeah, yeah, the if you've ever watched the social network, the David Fincher movie from a few years back, the Winklevost twins are part of the Facebook story.
And now they're big Bitcoin guys.
And so I don't know they're, they spent a million dollars to back Bill Barian in his, his pack.
But, you know, I think he, Bill Barian would be kind of like Tim Michaels or an Eric Hubby, where you have these depocketed, you know, business executive types.
Who can self fund their campaigns.
So I think, you know, can't rule them out because of that.
But I think without a Trump endorsement, this, this candidacy is a very low ceiling.
Plus Republicans have run that experiment now two or three times and it hasn't worked.
So, you know, even Brandon Schultz, Republican strategist has been saying, you know, maybe we need a different model here.
So I'd be surprised, but not shocked if Barian got it.
The person's, who seems to be the clear front runner, if he throws his hand, the ring is Tom Tiffany.
Congressman Tom Tiffany, it seems like he's already running, doesn't it?
I mean, you pay attention to some of the public statements that he's been making on social media.
He's been raising his profile and kind of conservative media circles.
He was all over the place at Wisconsin State Fair a couple of weeks ago.
You know, doing events with moms for liberty and, you know, holding, holding different kind of press events and things like that.
There was also a recent poll that the conservative publication, The Daily Caller, published, I believe last week, and showed that if Tiffany were to enter the race, he'd be at 40%, show him at 13%, Barian at 10%.
So I think he'd be way, way ahead.
And it also just, you know, part of the poll was that they showed how much a Trump endorsement would matter.
And I think a Trump endorsement of Tiffany that, as they showed in that poll, would essentially clear the field.
So if Tiffany gets into the race, if he gets a Trump endorsement, I think that poll showed him at over 60%, and at that point, you know, a showman in Barian would be, you know, just kind of token opposition if anything.
So I think, I think there's, there is a clear path for Tiffany to win, but I don't really see him as the type of candidate with a whole lot of crossover appeal.
You know, but I do think what it would show, and I wrote about this in my piece, is how the center of power for Republican politics in Wisconsin would really, you know, be shifting
with the Tiffany candidacy. I think for so long, it's been the wild counties, you know, Scott Walker ran up huge numbers in Wauksha County, Ozaki County, Washington County, and now Wauksha and Ozaki in particular have been shifting pretty considerably towards Democrats over the last decade or so, particularly, especially during the Trump era, and I think the fact that you have a candidate from Northern Wisconsin, you know, from the Northwest part of the state that, that Tiffany represents in Congress.
I think that is where the real stronghold of Republican politics is shifting. It is no longer a suburban party. It is much more of a rural party.
But in the general, they may do worse. He may do worse in the wild counties than another candidate. So I mean, that's right. I think, you know, is a blue Ozaki County in play, you know, if, if Tom Tiffany runs, I wouldn't entirely rule it out, you know, and would Tiffany be able to reach
some of those lower propensity voters in more rural areas that Donald Trump was remarkably successful with. I don't think Tiffany would really be able to do that. But then again, it's, you know, this is Wisconsin. We've got a 50-50 state. Every election seems to come down to a few decimal points. So any nominee from either of the major parties is, you know, has a real fighting chance to win.
I mean, the Republican party doesn't listen to me. And I don't give him free advice, really, but it always seemed to me in 2022 did Rebecca Clayfish would have been a much better candidate than than Michaels. I thought she was horribly mistreated by the old boy now working the money network and basically elbowed out of the field.
And when that happened, I thought, well, she should have the inside lane. If Michaels doesn't win. And yet you don't hear her name very much. What's going on with Rebecca Clayfish.
Now you don't hear her. I'm still fascinated to see what she's going to do next in politics. Like you said, I think she was a stronger candidate than Michaels in that primary. I think she would have would have given either as a, you know, more of a run for his money in that race. I didn't think Michaels was a particularly impressive candidate.
You know, but I think she, I think part of what was happening at the time is just like in the immediate post dobs decision wake. She's, you know, really not. She was, she was pretty root far to the right on some of those abortion reproductive rights issues. So I think that would have heard her in that type of race.
I'm still interested to see what she does next. I suspect what she does next will not be running for governor in 2026.
Yeah, she was very well liked among Republican legislators in the Capitol. So I think she has a future if she wants it at some point. And then there's the eternal Tommy Thompson, who still talks about wanting to run for governor. Is that just him putting his name out there? Or is that serious?
I don't think that's serious. I think that's I think that's Tommy Thompson have a little fun with the media. Just, you know, kind of people are going to ask him and he's going to he's going to say he's interested, even if that that that time appears to have come in pass to you mentioned, come in pass. Yeah, you mentioned, Havdean and Michaels. Their names have been bandied about. It seems to me that's unlikely. What do you think?
Yeah, I definitely don't think Michael's I think there's a possibility with Havdean, you know, it's kind of the the inverse of the issue with Mandela Barnes, right? It's just like he came so close and has a lot of name ID because, you know, he got, you know, quite a few votes in that in that statewide race. So I think, but I think the fact that he, he threw this tantrum that he did, you know, after losing and it's just like,
you know, that's the type of thing that really turns off independent voters. And so like, you know, as much as that may be, you know, bashing Milwaukee is going to and bashing Milwaukee's votes and counting is is going to help him in a, you know, among conservatives. It's it's not going to help you among independence. And I think, you know, that but but again, he's he's got a lot of name ID.
And so I think there's a chance Havdean gets in. I don't really think there's a chance Michael's gets in. The only other name you mentioned was a state center of Maryfell Scoutsky, talked us about her.
Yeah, she's, you know, I think she's an interesting, interesting figure here in Republican politics. You know, she's the Senate president, the state Senate president. And I think for the first time in ages.
She and the Senate majority leader, Devon Lemme, he voted on opposite sides of the budget. You don't really see that within the same party a whole lot of times. And right before that budget was passed, she gave this pretty compelling speech that I think raised the eyebrows of political observers like myself saying what's she going for here? She had a lot to say right before that budget vote.
So I'm interested to see what she does next. You know, I don't really she's her name has come up in these these conversations for governor. I wonder if she follows a similar path to what she did a few years ago because in 2020 when Tom Tiffany made the jump to run from he was a state senator when he made the run that jump to run for Congress, she was the one to jump from the assembly to the Senate to run for Tiffany's seat.
So could that happen again if Tom Tiffany runs for governor, opening up his congressional seat, would she run for that congressional seat? I think that's certainly in play.
Well, that's a great tour of the horizon, Dan Schaefer. One last question. I think it's probably ever most in the minds of our listeners are the Democrats likely to hold out of the governor's mansion.
I mean, it's Wisconsin. So I think every statewide race has to be viewed as a toss up right now. But I think the bench that the Democrats have the group of potential candidates, the Democrats have are is certainly a stronger group than what Republicans have.
The one Republican we didn't mention here that I think is worth at least talking about is Congressman Brian style. He's the representative from the first congressional district Paul Ryan's old district.
He has consistently outperformed the numbers in his district. He's ran well ahead of the top of the ticket, whether it was Michael's and Ron Johnson in 2022 or with Donald Trump in 2024.
He's a really good fundraiser. He's good in the media, but he's running not for governor. He's running for Congress again. He's running for reelection in his congressional seat. And I think if he were to run for Republicans, then I would think it would be really a true toss up in this race.
I think because he's not running, I think that's great news for Democrats because I think he's actually a pretty good candidate. I think he, you know, if you're making bets on who the next Wisconsin Republican to win a statewide races, I think it's going to be style.
But I think Democrats probably come into this race with a slight edge overall, but again, it's Wisconsin. So many of our elections are decided by such close margins. I don't want to put either party as a leg up here, but I think, you know, the way that the trends have shifted, you know, we've seen it in the state Supreme Court elections, which turned out for the last one was more similar to a midterm than your typical spring election.
And I think you're having a situation now where Democrats are you're more reliable every election voters. And I think it used to be that Democrats really drove turnout in those presidential years, particularly under Barack Obama.
Now I think Donald Trump has really been driving the higher turnout in those election years, particularly last year.
And the, you know, kind of higher propensity voters that vote in every election, that vote in their school board races, that vote in their common council, that vote in midterms are more democratic than they were historically.
So I think that is another point and a Democratic party's favor going into the midterm. And then just the history of the party that's not in the White House tends to do better in the midterms.
So there's a lot of signs saying that Democrats are in better shape right now.
And for everyone who's horrified, but why what Donald Trump's doing to this country, this will be an opportunity to go to the polls and inflect their muscles. So I think you're right about that.
Dan Schaeffer, thanks for being my guest on this episode of the Wisconsin Forward Podcast.
Thanks so much, Matt.
I'm Matt Rothschild. For my next episode, we'll be talking about redistricting and whether it's wise for Democrats to fight fire with fire on Jerry Manring. I'm a firm no on that, but we'll hash it out. So stay tuned for that.
Thanks for watching.
