This is a special presentation from Civic Media News.
From our Civic Media Studios in Madison and across the state of Wisconsin,
this is special coverage of Wisconsin Decides 2024.
Here are your hosts, Todd Alba and Pat Critello.
And welcome in to the World Headquarters here.
High and top state street of block off the capital square in downtown Madison,
Wisconsin as election night rolls on.
Not just here in Wisconsin, but across the country as we continue to keep you
abreast of what's happening in the state and around the country rejoining me
at the election night desk here on set.
Wisconsin Decides 2024.
The host of up north news radio every morning from six until eight a.m.
across Civic Media, Pat Critello, Pat Crite,
to have you back at the at the desk here.
We can bring folks some late breaking word on the Wisconsin referendum.
Question requiring citizenship to vote that has passed overwhelmingly.
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel now calling that as passing the yes votes
have won overwhelmingly 70.2% to 29.7%.
I'm not quite sure of the exact percentage of vote in, but that has been called.
And it was something I predicted sometime back.
Now folks saw that the referendum went down in August.
But in August, there wasn't nearly as much on the ballot.
There was a much more concerted messaging effort to defeat one of the many unnecessary
duplicative constitutional amendments redundant.
This one much like the ones in April.
There just wasn't an organized messaging campaign to point out the hazards of it,
which will I'm sure we will now talk about it a later time as it puts voting rights.
In greater jeopardy for some vulnerable populations in Wisconsin.
Yeah, we will continue to follow that.
But again, the constitutional referendum in Wisconsin requiring citizenship has passed this evening.
Also going to give you an update on the US Senate race here in the state of Wisconsin.
And right now it is 49% for Eric Covey and 48.8% for Tammy Baldwin.
This is with 60.7% of the vote in.
Again, it is huddy 49.2, Baldwin 48.7.
And Pat Cretlow, as we look at the numbers here across the state of Wisconsin,
looking down Dane County, which of course is one of the bigger counties for
Democrats here, 88% of the vote in there so far.
Again, it's going to be a while.
Is this a race continues to unfold?
But let me share some insight from some other reporters who are following these from James Joyce over at the isthmus.
First, the good news if you're a fan of Kamala Harris in Madison's ward 40.
It's in with its 2,265 votes, 2,162 of them.
95% went for Vice President Harris.
The news is not as good for Kamala Harris fans from J.R. Ross.
That was politics looking at the wild counties.
Waka Shah Zaki in Washington that make up the suburbs around Milwaukee.
And in there, Donald Trump with about half the vote reporting in Washington County is a little over 70%.
And he got 68% there four years ago.
In Ozaki County with nearly 70% of the vote in.
He's at, let's see, 56% of the vote.
And he got 55% four years ago.
And AJ Bydport CBS 58 takes us back to Dane County to note that with 72% of the vote in Trump is at 25 and a half percent.
He got 23% in 16 and 20.
And so at the moment, it does not look like Vice President Harris will get a big lift from the population gain in Dane County.
She's on pace to be around 260,000 votes, which is what Bydden got four years ago.
So anybody that was predicting a Wisconsin blowout.
That's not going to happen.
We have a couple of calls for you once again, civic media projections on the other side.
According to the Associated Press Civic Media can now call the state of California for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Surprise surprise for home state. Of course, she served there as state attorney general and the United States Senator from California, California now in the Harris column.
Also, the Associated Press calling the state of Washington, including Seattle, of course, and Bremerton for Vice President Harris as well.
And the state of Idaho has not been called for Donald Trump.
Again, packed right low, not a lot of surprise in those calls there.
Let's go up north, up north, where packed you will find him every morning on Lake Wassato from six until eight.
The great station WXCO Ball Falls Radio in Warsaw in central Wisconsin.
Chad Holmes of our great station up there is standing by Chad, sorry to keep you on the lines along.
Thank you, my friend for hanging in there and being with us tonight.
What are you seeing up there in the city of Warsaw, Marathon County in central Wisconsin tonight?
To be perfectly blunt right now, it's been right now, it looks like a pretty significant Republican sweep at this point.
One of the big races I've been keeping an eye on here this evening has been in the state assembly district 85.
And I know that Dan Schaefer was targeting this as one of the most important elections in terms of the Democrats opportunity to try and take control of the state assembly.
But with about 59% of the votes right now in the incumbent Republican Pat Snyder as a 59% the 41% lead over the Democratic challenger Ye Lang Zhang about 9, 900 votes to 6,300 votes.
And it's a bit of a surprise at this point to see that kind of spread.
But something that I have sensed in the last week or so.
It has been an avalanche of negative advertising that's been put out especially by third party operators against Ye Lang Zhang and Todd.
I mean, I mentioned to you last week when you came to Stephen point that that was the feel.
I just think that the overwhelming negativity that we have seen from the specials, those third party spots have really hurt the challenger in this case.
And I think it's always that little bit of an uphill struggle when you are a challenger.
Well, Pat and and shall let's talk about this for a second because we've all been involved either directly or tangentially in politics followed it Pat and I were in it in partisan politics for a long time.
It's been a long time Pat since I recall I'm just going to say it dirty negative ads where you're insinuating something about a candidate that simply is patty false and pardon me.
And some of the worst things insinuating that that a candidate wants to send a person's child to school and give them a pill to transition to transition them, there's sexual identity.
It simply does not happen anywhere and they've run to Chaz Point, run the crap out of those ads.
Sure, but by that same token, there's so many more crimes committed by Americans than by immigrants, the crime rate around immigrants is so much smaller than the general population, you would never know from looking at the ads.
And I know that the ads in Warsaw have been brutal, the ads down here in Madison for a key state Senate race have been brutal, so negative, so willing to go to places that again, once upon a time, you would have been embarrassed to put out an ad like that.
But let's be honest, Chad, it runs because it works.
Absolutely, and I mean, it has been just frankly character assassination, I'm willing to say it that far, some of these spots to make again the one of us versus the other and unfortunately right now it seems to keep on working.
I had a chance, and again, not just that race, I had a chance to talk to the 69th District State Assembly candidate Roger, host another wonderful guy, you know, and unfortunately he's losing by 73% to 23% tonight another, I thought very impressive candidate Elizabeth McCrank, just a passionate person in the Merrill area, and she's losing to an empty suit named Calvin Callahan, 67 to 32.
Another person that I've had a chance to talk to Andy Rick, somebody so into the environment and really helping people right in, right down the street, and she's losing another empty suit for Merrill, Merrill Felskowski, Mary Felskowski 68 to 31.
Again, and frankly, we're having a little discussion and Bob look who will be with me tomorrow morning was saying sometimes maybe maybe the Democrats are just too nice because these are really good folks, but you just get hit over and over and over again by millions of dollars of these campaign spots and all of a sudden the people that are not the good people are looking like the good people.
I mean, right from the top of the ticket down in the, and the behind us with you looking at these numbers here in Marathon County, I mean, it's, it's not a pretty site right now.
Joe, I want to break in just for a second great executive producer, Jamie Martinson providing this with some great information here.
We've talked about this throughout the night pad that down in whitewater, whatever they did down there to motivate students, I mean, hats off to them because students are still waiting in line to vote at UW Whitewater.
Governor Tony Evers just put out the statement via Twitter saying quote, you can now register to vote and make your voice heard until 10 30 tonight.
Go vote at the downtown Amory or probably Armory or University Center. So again, Governor Evers, I mean again Maggie Dawn who is an attorney who is an expert on these things has told us if people were in line at eight o'clock, you have the right to vote.
And that's now being apparently extended according to Tony Evers until 10 30. Yeah, the line at times at whitewater was four to five hours long.
You heard Christina Laurie talk about the the long lines in Madison. I certainly saw a video of the long lines that UW Claire.
Now again, like you mentioned, she had the results aren't as good in your part of the state, but I'm sure the turnout of younger adult voters there was probably equally impressive.
I have been talking to folks here as well, and also in terms of where I went today in the village of Weston, it was as busy as I can ever recall and then some, I mean, literally cars were waiting on the street to get in and get parking spots and they had folks pointing people in the right directions to make sure we didn't get jammed up.
And I heard it was the same in Rip Mountain and in was so proper as well. So absolutely, I think that has been a trend that's been really throughout the state and right here in central Wisconsin as well.
And before I let you go for this report, anything that you want to make sure there are listeners across the state of Wisconsin know that I have not asked you yet.
Well, I would say the one thing as well is that looking at you mentioned the fact that last half hour time Tiffany got the check the check mark.
I guess the big question is now I mean for folks around here, there's been those rumbles that maybe he is thinking about making a run for governor in a couple of years.
I imagine that nothing that's happened tonight will dissuade him off of perhaps making that lead.
We were jumping ahead to the Supreme Court race in April. We're already jumping ahead to the governor's race in 2026.
Chad Holmes, excellent. Always appreciate you. My friend up there at the WXL radio in was on you to hear Chad every morning at WXL from eight until 10.
We'll check back in a little bit later, Chad. Thank you so very much.
Another one of our great reporters, Brittany Murlow joins us now via phone.
Brittany and not only is a meteorologist, but of course she is one of our great reporters as well here at the civic media news department.
And Brittany, we appreciate you joining us. So what are you hearing tonight in your neck of the woods? Where are you at tonight? Where do we find you? And what do you have for us?
Yes, so I am at Dr. Christen Meyer Lee's launch party. We have moved. First we were in Green Bay. Now we're out here at Appleton at the beer factory. And this place is packed to the brim with people and provide here are pretty good right now.
We are looking at the blackmail guess of the blackmail questioners results come in and in fact it looks like.
Christen has won door county by 600 votes unofficially of course and here is Baldwin with them as well. So that's exciting news that we are looking at you know in Brown County 23 out of the 96 precincts putting in there and we've had we've also had an out of gaming and Calumette as well and
for sure people are huddling around a lot of hugs going around as well but by really herself is very confident you know she says yes it's been 14 years red here and it's been flipped back and forth and she thinks that people here just really want an independent person and thinker and you know what it comes to the women's rights and the economy and she's just really all about working together and really no fears on honestly who the leaders will be because she thinks everyone's just really going to be working together.
You know it's a good idea.
Well of course it is because that's how she says in the fatigable as they come.
Even in the face of numbers that you know at the moment don't look especially promising but they they were never predicted to be otherwise and yet she went right into the belly of the beast made the case one over all kinds of folks across that district.
But again it's rather tough territory and as we're finding out all across the state things are absolutely as as close as they seem there's not going to be any kind of a blue wave here by any stretch of the imagination.
Just some races they're going to be very close and stretch into well late at night by the time all of a sudden done but there wouldn't have been a lot of these competitive legislative races in the eighth congressional district.
If Christian Lierley hadn't been out there helping to recruit candidates and get them motivated to run.
Yeah absolutely I got a percent agree with that and it's exactly what she's been saying here over and over again repeating that as well.
You know I just it's interesting because she said he wrote a Republican most of her life right and then just to kind of flip and if everyone coming together is.
Yes it is.
Thank you so much Brittany Merlot really appreciate your reporting there from the victory party of Dr Lierley and thanks for all your great reporting here during this campaign season and you do it all Brittany because I will give us the news it gives the weather as well.
How is the weather right now but green Bay Area.
Oh you know what the rain finally stopped the winds are good I thought for a minute I was going to have to take that umbrella and Mary pop into the polls.
It's dry now really appreciate it thank you very much Brittany Merlot will check back in with you a little bit later pack right low you you nailed it.
Trigby Olson I I know she's been a regular on your show on North news radio for a long time and Trigby and I sat down with her at the start of this campaign and we sat down with her again in Appleton last week we did our what makes Wisconsin great to her her energy her positivity.
Was at or exceeding where she was when she started and and you as as a successful candidate for state legislature know how difficult that is for her candidate to keep that energy up to the entire campaign.
Well but she she she enjoyed it all because again you you believe in in what you're doing you believe in the message that you're bringing to people who have long felt under represented or not represented at all in Northeast Wisconsin.
The congressional district lines did not change it was the legislative lines that changed that gave us more competitive races and will will get us a different balanced legislature but the congressional lines are still what they are the seventh district with Tom Tiffany you know Glenn growthman Scott Fitzgerald they they are in districts that are almost impenetrable and it so it was news that the eighth district was being talked about as being in play.
The third district is still in play and will continue to watch the first district in in southeast Wisconsin and see if anything changes there but again it's the legislative races that we're watching and the Dan Shavers going to be watching for the balance.
But again those candidates have to start someplace and Kristen Lierley was a key recruiter for a lot of those candidates she certainly was will continue to follow that race you're listening to Wisconsin decides 2024 here the civic media.
Radio network town all along with Pat Critello of up north news radio Pat let's give our listeners and viewers and update on the US Senate race here in Wisconsin was 64 and what we'll call it 65 I love that will round up 65% on the vote in Eric Covey leads incumbent democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin 49.7% to 48.2% I know I know Pat what you're going to say no it doesn't matter yet because not all the votes are cast.
But there's just people are you know people want the updates because this is what matters I mean people of both sides and put a lot of work into this race and and it's going to be a nail bite right down to the end well and again it's not going to be a big night for Democrats after all.
Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown has just been upset and we see news is predicting projecting that Republican Bernie Moreno will unseat Senator Sherrod Brown and give this Republicans one more seat in the Senate which again they they only need a net gain of two seats to take control of the Senate.
Yeah it's it's fascinating to me and I want your perspective on this since we haven't been here as someone who's been elected official who's been a journalist who follows this stuff for a living like we both do.
But there was there was a feeling coming into tonight Pat on the Democratic side but there was some real momentum here that that that the having you know women's reproductive rights on the ballot was going to create I hesitate to use the term blue wave that's overused but it's going to be a big night for Democrats.
And so far at best it seems it's going to be a neutral night yeah there was a lot of optimism and I think rooted in in energy more so that necessarily than results yeah there was a lot of discussion about what people aren't telling pollsters and that in 2016 in hindsight the conventional wisdom was that a lot of people wouldn't say that they were voting for Trump but then they went ahead and did there was a lot of feeling.
I mean this time around that a lot of people women especially were typical Republican voters but we're going to vote for Kamala Harris but again weren't saying so to the pollsters and that turned out at the moment to not be the case we still have an electorate that is fairly evenly divided with the again no big surprises Ohio is a bit of a surprise just because shared Brown was a strong Democrat but in a red state.
And that's why we're watching Tammy Baldwin and here again another good Democrat but in a in a very purple state and why we're going to be watching this for as long as we will.
Yeah absolutely Pat Kratlow and again the cut to the case you're just joining us here at election night Wisconsin decides 2024 the big swing states the blue wall so speak of Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin all those polls of course have now been closed but none of them have been called yet for either candidate.
Right now AP and New York Times the websites are calling Pennsylvania a toss up still with 76% of the votes in there it is Trump leading 51 to 48% in Pennsylvania in Michigan they're calling that lean R right now there's only 33% of the vote that one's still very early Pat could go either way of course Trump technically 52 Harris 46 but again only 33% of the votes in Michigan.
And Wisconsin right now 66% of the votes in it is 51% for Donald Trump and 48% for Kamala Harris still a long ways to go there still no official call for the state of Georgia yet we know that earlier on North Carolina was called for for Donald Trump and of course we have Arizona and Nevada still out as well.
And so now let's take it closer to home and look at some of these legislative races i'm looking at some results that are being shared by JR Ross from West politics looking at some of the key assembly races let's go to the Cooley region first that would be democratic representative Steve Doyle in a rematch with Republican Ryan Hipsch and with 80% of the vote in Steve Doyle has 52% of the vote.
And then another key race is the 91st in the city of Eau Claire which had been under the gerrymandered maps the city of Eau Claire was a safe democratic enclave now you've got competitive races out in the rural areas and in the city itself with those new lines and that's where state representative Jody Emerson was facing a challenge from Michelle Magadan Skinner former TV anchor in the Eau Claire area and at the moment with 85% of the vote.
In on that 91st assembly district Jody Emerson has a lead but with 51.1% of the vote.
Thank you very much Pat Critello you're listening to continuing coverage of Wisconsin Science 2024 on the civic media already at work Pat Critello up north news radio every morning six to eight to all ball here with you every afternoon noon until two.
One of our other great folks here at civic media course our assistant news director Savannah to me Olsen standing by once again to give us report Savannah once again let folks over you're at what you're feel what you're seeing what you know.
Hey there guys well the vibe of the room has really shifted at this point as you can imagine the room has gotten a little quieter i'm sure you can hear the MSNBC that's blurring behind us but the crowd itself has gotten quieter.
Simply last talk to lieutenant governor Sarah Rodriguez is now called twice basically to tell people it'll be a long night but the tone is very different the first time versus the second which was just a few moments ago.
You basically just said they're still optimistic backstage there but it'll be a long night that was kind of the bottom line she was giving people there.
I'm downstairs on the ground level in the press section and the risers for the cameras kind of blocks of you so most people are above us on the balcony.
Which is where I would do to be if I wanted a good you it's been pretty wild though to suddenly hear cheers and booze from a full story above you i'm seeing a lot of clothing that would not be appropriate at the polling place to come a lusher the Harris wall Midwest princess inspired camo hat and lots of the female anatomy on buttons and shirts.
Yeah people are watching things really closely here and I think people are more nervous than they expected to be alright well keep an eye on that for us Savannah we appreciate it very much let's get an update from.
And Jacobs the chair of the Wisconsin elections commission an update from the central count facility downtown the final tally of absentee ballots for Milwaukee is one hundred eight thousand three hundred twenty five.
And she writes that as of five minutes ago ten seventeen these ballots are not in any of the unofficial results that you are seeing so there's another one hundred eight thousand votes from Milwaukee that have yet to be added to the returns you're seeing right now they will be released when they've all been scanned she writes hopefully close to midnight.
Let's go quickly back to streaming our trivia Olsen senior advisor the Lincoln project out in Washington DC rejoins this tricky i'm not sure you're busy out there tonight only have about two minutes left no we have to go to break but I'm with you the rest is long as you want.
All right sounds good trivia give us the lay of the land we have a two minutes until the break what are you seeing in your numbers right now.
Still about Michigan.
Maybe you're going in Nevada I mean I think.
You know I mean they're just all going to be close I don't know what else tell you I mean you've done this for a living tribute for years do you think that we'll know tonight or you think this is going to extend into the next days forward.
I think late night we're going to have a pretty good sense of where Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin go I think.
I just think they're all going to be really close and is a fair to say that that is really the path for a couple of hairs that I've used to win is to carry that blue wall always has been and will continue to be I think you know when we're out on the tour Todd.
It was pretty clear in the more rural areas that that Trump was doing well I think maybe there was an under estimation of how well.
Yeah it's just I mean the reality is you got some you have some counties like St. Croix that are still out that's going to be fascinating and then and then it's just going to be how many votes get made up in Milwaukee.
There you go all right sounds good trivia Olsen stand by get the coffee on my friend will be here at Pat Critello from up north views radio and dance.
This is civic media special coverage of Wisconsin decides 2024 once again Todd Alba and Pat Critello.
And welcome back to the world like we're here in Dowley town Madison Wisconsin Pat Critello of up north news radio back here at the anchor desk and we are.
We joined by our political editor here at civic media the founder of the recombobulation area Dan Schaefer help us recombulate this thing we came into this even thinking that it might be a blue wave or a big night for Democrats still a lot of time left.
Trigby Olsen was talking to us a little bit earlier it's still going to come down to those the blue wall states but maybe not quite the night that some Democrats and hope it would be.
Yeah certainly not I think there were a lot of Democrats are really optimistic about North Carolina in particular the AP has now called that one for Donald Trump so that's you know that's a big big chip there in the Republican column.
But like you said there's so much still to come so much still to to look ahead to as we continue to look at the results especially you know here in Wisconsin where where there's not only we talked about Milwaukee being you know reported later in the evening i've been tracking what's going on in green Bay.
And that's you know a place that I focused on in my coverage a lot over the past few weeks I wrote a big feature about the Fox Valley in green Bay green Bay has not really reported a whole lot of results just yet.
So if we're looking at kind of where the tea leaves are in that part of the state and that crucial part of the state we really don't have the answers just yet for that one but there is there is a whole lot going on in some of these state legislative races then too.
Back quite a little.
No I would counsel that same patience my race wasn't decided till you know 130 in the morning and that was to get 50.9% of the vote is as I recall and we've simply reverted to form is where we're at even even with the new districts it takes time to count some of these things and remember you can move the lines all you want.
In overall red territory like northern Wisconsin while you're just you know moving deck chairs around on the boat it's still the boat is going to go in the direction it's going to go in right now.
Shaffer what do you make we talked a little bit of a chat home was for a great station up at was on WXCO about this just abundance of and I'm just talking negative i'm talking dark ads against democratic candidates with flat out lies we're not talking about.
I can't actually raise your taxes more than can be this was candidate X supports giving your child a pill that will change the sexual orientation from the morning till the afternoon which is just patently false and and the effect of these ads.
Yeah I think you know we saw some of the numbers come in on where the spending went late in the cycle and that was just overwhelmingly the the anti trans the transphobic type of messages that were coming through in many of these races.
That was kind of the closing message for Republicans and I think it was more than 200 million that was spent specifically on those types of ads you know it seems to in the early going be leaning towards the Republicans in this race.
I want to point out one you mentioned central Wisconsin and some of what our friend Chad Holmes was seeing there one of the races that I had listed as a toss up for the Wisconsin state legislature was in district 85 that is in and around the wasa area.
That one looks like it's going in the Republican direction there with incumbent Patrick Snyder with a pretty sizable lead over democratic challenger Ealing John.
Very good appreciate you were going to come back and recombobulate a little bit more Dan Schaffer stand by but right now we're going to go back to our news director from Green Bay WGB W up in the valley Lisa Hale is there and Lisa there has been no call let me make this clear there has been no call made.
Apparently we lost Lisa we're going to get her back in just a bit here she was simply reporting that Tony weed was already giving a victory speech in Ash Waban on even though the race hasn't been called yet with about 53% of the votes counted he has 60%.
So that is the report from Lisa but we do have Terry bar standing very good the wonderful and talented Terry bar standing by Terry good evening to you once again what do you know.
Terry are you there.
I feel like I need to be recombobulated.
Don't we all from time.
Absolutely following this race has been fascinating and over here at the Eric Hubday campaign party at the edgewater and Madison everybody basically now has just taken a seat and are watching the TV screens.
In the party for a long time we were seeing Eric Hubday out chatting and thanking people he only went to the stage once and at that moment he said.
Kind of that same message we have heard from him all throughout this does our country want to go in a new direction I think it does so he stuck on his messaging.
We knew this was going to be close but in looking at some of the current numbers there is not winner projected right now 68% of the vote is in and Eric Hubday the Republican candidate for Senate has 49.8%.
We're Tammy Baldwin the Democratic incumbent is at 48 1% now the numbers have moved pretty quickly those numbers now have not changed in a little while and I'm wondering if that has something to do with Pat Crite low mentioning how many votes are still out there to be counted and mentioning those absentee ballots.
So we're going to keep an eye on this all night right alongside you guys.
Terry always appreciate reporting just across town at the beautiful edgewater hotel by the way it's a beautiful video right.
Only the best for Eric Hubday yes.
Apparently the Orange County Hotel was full.
I appreciate that couple of interesting notes from JR Ross over with politics looking at a couple of Western Wisconsin counties and he calls it mixed news for vice president Harris if you look we're going to look at Oh Claire County and La Crosse County in Oh Claire County almost all the vote is at 92 out of 93 precincts and Kamala Harris is is going to take it with 54.6%.
Well Joe Biden got 54.3% so just a scotch better than the 2020 number in La Crosse County now they're not nearly done yet 43 out of 50 precincts reporting so 86% of the vote in and Harris is at 53% and in 2020 Joe Biden got 56% so she's currently running 3% behind.
But we don't know which precincts haven't yet reported from La Crosse County but right now again for folks that thought there was going to be this tremendous improvement in Kamala Harris's numbers from Joe Biden's numbers that's just not materializing here.
Trivia Olsen senior advisors and Lincoln Project a native of River Falls Wisconsin.
Trivia you have run races and third congressional district you know that part as well as Pat Critello does.
What it would be if you I'm not sure if you were able to hear there what Pat just said these numbers with intense of a percent Trivia in Claire County does that say anything about the race just hearing those numbers.
Well I'm sitting here looking at 2020 versus 2024 actually and you know in Western Wisconsin she seems to be holding up margins that are very similar to Biden's the issue is she's running.
Like 3 to 4% less in Dane Milwaukee in some of those places and remember the last election was close now turnout ends up factoring into it too right because even if you're running less turnouts higher I just think I don't know you know for the last six elections in Wisconsin have been decided by 20,000 votes or less this one striking me that it might be within 10,000 votes either way.
At the end of the day.
Yeah and it was about how long ago Trivia wasn't that Trivia called me up I think was a Saturday warning and he said Todd who wins I said when you mean state wider nationwide and he said both I said
Harris by a thread 10 to 15,000 votes and you said a word and you said I think you're right.
Yeah I mean Wisconsin is going to Wisconsin just as the way it is and I mean Michigan and Pennsylvania are both close and this race in a little bit has a little bit of if Harris pulls out these three states of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania it's going to be a little bit of reverse 2016 I think.
The national votes going to be pretty close and I it does seem that younger males Latinos and African Americans around the edges have voted more for Trump than probably what was expected.
You know I mean he really gets 20% of the African American vote in Milwaukee that would be stunning let's take people back to 2016 because you brought this up correct me if I'm wrong keep you honest but Donald Trump won the presidency by carrying Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania by fewer people than sit in Camp Randall Stadium on a given Saturday afternoon correct.
I think it was 74,000 votes across the three and Camp Randall seats what 81 82,000 so that's how close it was when you're saying it could be a reverse 2016 that's why people just have to hang on here if you're only for a Harris win.
I mean Trump could win all three two.
That's a win all three but it's not it's not unusual this it's not unprecedented for it to be this close and all three of these key battleground states.
No it's not.
That's where we just we just watch the numbers as they come in because again they they have already been cast it's just a matter of counting and reporting and the whole thing about the the red Mirage and the blue wave.
Still that that is a real effect but now the question becomes where that that you know is that red Mirage actually a Mirage or is that Republican strength that cannot be overcome by late democratic votes you know in urban areas.
Here's a note from our executive producer Jamie Martin so to find this interesting when you're making this guy's Harris is on track to under perform Biden by five points in Minnesota despite picking Tim Walls as our vice president.
Yeah a lot of that is you know in the numbers across the country we're seeing rural downstrum in proven rural areas and again.
You know he's doing better with younger voters than expected he's doing better far better with Latinos and he's doing far better with African American that marginally better with African Americans and.
So that's narrowing the margin in some of these places and you know Minnesota being closer is a lot more like 16 than it was like 2020.
When you mentioned Latino voters let me tell you what BC just said about the state of Texas where Ted Cruz has been reelected six years ago Ted Cruz lost Latinos by 29 points tonight Ted Cruz won Latino voters by six points that's a 35 points win.
Yeah and you know my buddy Mike Madrid has written a great book on how Latino voters have been changing and and through you know part of it is what's considered Latino voters a lot of them have been in the US for you know they there's second and third generation Americans so.
Yeah if you if you've lost if if you have lost sight of you know what Cuba was like under a dictator I guess you're you're less hostile to the idea of one in the United States or one want to be let's go quickly to the phone oh first of all we have a quick civic media projection.
According to the associated press civic media can now project that the commonwealth of Virginia has gone for vice president Kamala Harris again the commonwealth of Virginia will be put in Harris's column according to the associated press let's go to you James Kelly now our news reporter I will send sports he's a sports reporter as well he's a great sports guy and probably James have you ever played hockey.
He's a big hockey guy where you just a baseball guy oh I never played hockey I value my own life too much James Kelly our great news reporter up at WCFW up in the Chippewa Valley there it'll clear and Chippewa falls James Kelly what do you have for us.
Well about 20 minutes ago Rebecca Cook spoke with supporters who are still here at the wash party which is beginning to wrap up just reassuring them there are a lot of votes left to count we're about 75% through the count right now Rebecca's down about 11,000 votes but just assuring them there are a lot of votes still out there to count it's going to be a close race and they're still confident that they're going to have a pretty good shot at this.
Sounds good James we appreciate that update there stay on the line and there or we'll check back in with you a little while later.
Trigby Olson and Pat Critello interesting question here and Trigby your guy who's used one national races do the Ted Cruz numbers that Pat Critello talked about just a few minutes ago that he's picked up and enclosed not just closed but actually one Latinos in Texas tonight does that give you any insight
to what we might see in Arizona or the two states just so different it doesn't mean anything.
Well I don't think Latinos necessarily are monolithic block I would say Latinos in Texas are more similar to ones in Arizona than they are in Florida for example right like his Puerto Ricans are considered Latinos but they're different than Hispanic Latinos.
You know Arizona is really close the thing that's fascinating to me in in all of these states is you know in all four of them their Senate races and the Democrat Senate candidates are running slightly better than the then Harris is running and that's true with Baldwin too right so.
But yeah it could I mean Harris has to win Michigan in Pennsylvania and right now in Pennsylvania with the counties that are left he's been running two points better than what he ran last time and he needs to run with the remaining votes 1.5 better than he did last time so.
You know I don't know it's just it it it certainly tilts a little bit towards Trump because she's got to win all three.
But I think all three of them when all of a sudden don are going to end up being recently close.
It is the ultimate political craps game right and they they have been close before and we did not get results you know that night again Pennsylvania on the Saturday.
Is is not unheard of so again I would just simply counsel patients as we you know continue to rack up the votes.
Right now right now she's down 67,000 votes in Wisconsin and Milwaukee hasn't dropped she can make up 67,000 there but there's going to be other places that are coming in where he's going to add to his margins so as I said to somebody just now on text.
I mean if I had to guess I mean I think it's like 7,500 votes either way.
Well you've dropped your margin even more than the last time.
I kind of I kind of think it's more like 7,500 if I had to say probably there's a two thirds chance he gets it there's a one third chance she gets it but there you know.
He's going to be down to a coin flip by the time we're done here.
I don't know that I don't know that it will be that good.
Hey let's look for symbols where we can door county is considered this kind of a bell weather and it looks like Kamala Harris took door county by well just.
Just about 600 votes 10,500 to 10,000 even something like that so.
Last time last time it was 250 you know by the one of my 250 so I mean yeah it's just it's going to be close.
Let's bring our political editor and founder of the recombobulation area Dan Schafer back into the conversation here over in his fantastic recombobulation area over there by way Triggy it's Dan's birthday today.
Did you know that happy birthday Dan.
Hey Dan what's happening in the state legislative races.
I don't really have a good way to look at that.
I was just about to tell you what's happening in so let's start with the state Senate so let's reset on what's going on in the state.
So in the state Senate only half of the chamber is up this year so there was really not a realistic opportunity for Democrats to flip the chamber just yet.
But in the early go but in the early going everything is in the Senate at least is going as expected.
And some of the key races there that we are watching one is the district eight race that is in kind of the wild counties.
That is Democrat Jodi Habers-Ciniken going against Republican Dewey Strobel with 72% of the vote in there.
Habers-Ciniken has a very very very small lead.
So that is definitely one that we're going to be watching throughout the night.
District 14 is another one of the ones that we had in the toss up category.
Democrats Sarah Kieski is ahead with just over 50% of the vote in that race.
There's 74% in there in district 18.
That is in the Fox Valley.
Kristen Allfheim the Democrat there running against Republican Anthony Phillips.
Allfheim has the edge in that one at the moment.
There's still a lot of votes to be counted in that race as well.
And then in district 32 where Brad Paff Democrat is running for reelection.
He looks to be in pretty good shape to be reelected in that seat.
He has more than 52% of the vote with nearly 88% in that one.
I think the cross counties we've identified as one of the ones that has most of their results already reported.
So it looks like Brad Paff on track to win a reelection in that one.
And Brad Paff, of course, lost a very, very close race for U.S. Congress last time around to now the incumbent Derek bear.
Yeah, and I think that race is close.
You know, we've been hearing updates on what's been going on with the race.
But it does look like Brad Paff is in pretty good shape.
Kristen Allfheim is in pretty good shape.
We're still waiting on a lot of these results from Green Bay.
So the district 30 that's the kind of the fifth on the list there that I was looking at among those state Senate races.
So in order for Democrats to be in position to flip the chamber in 2026, they need to win some of these toss up races.
And so right now, they're looking good in the Fox Valley, looking good in Western Wisconsin.
Very tight race in the Milwaukee area suburbs and another very tight race in Richland Center.
What Wisconsin Dells bear boo that type of region?
Well, and that's a part of the state that I'm from and I think there's been a lot of interest in this Joe Baldwin race because
because of these new maps for people that don't know.
It kind of that that raised the ball or that Senate seat that Baldwin has.
It was more focused.
I would say just north of Dane County.
And now it stretches all the way across the Wisconsin River into Richland County.
And in the Sock County, all new territory for her.
But you know, also stretches into parts of Dane County, predominantly Democratic areas.
And you have Sarah Kaiski, the Democratic nominee there, who really Pat has gone out of her way to do a lot of great grassroots campaigning.
But again, we're all of it.
The lines have moved on the map, but here's the line that they're still in the Madison TV market.
Correct.
Where those were those ads, you know, like a sewage pipe have had just filled that race and made it a particularly ugly and may have made the difference in some of these cases.
Yeah.
Trigby, I don't know.
We haven't talked to you on the air.
I don't think we got one three or four minutes left here before we have to go three minutes or so.
These races are not over as we're all saying, but basically we're trying to kill a little time until we get some results here.
But talk a minute about these races or about these ads, rather, that attack Democrats on the issue of transphobia.
And what you and the Lincoln Project folks did to to rebut that because the Democrats seem to be a little bit late in rebutting that.
Well, so the ads, you know, I mean, I'll talk about the one that was running by HubD against Tammy Baldwin.
And I think I said that this earlier, the key of that ad wasn't really about trans.
I mean, the issue, that wasn't really the issue.
And Democrats sometimes, I think, get trapped in this understanding that it's about issues for Republicans.
It's more about narratives. And so the most important thing that was said in that ad again was the first few words of it, you know, Tammy Baldwin has changed with Harris.
You know, they didn't put up an ad responding to it because they said, well, voters aren't really caring about it.
But in reality, it was all about a narrative.
You know, the irony is the same policy that she was talking about was in place when Donald Trump was president.
We put out an ad. It was, we didn't have a lot of resources to be putting it up on TV like some of the, you know, super packs of Harris had.
And, you know, I think that they're going to look back on some of the ads that organizations like Future Forward ran and really wonder where that 750 million dollars went.
What about one minute left here, but to Dan and Path's point, did those ads that were not just running against Tammy Baldwin and Kamala Harris, but down ballot these legislative races.
I mean, we saw this our tour last week. They were running those ads against legislative candidates. And does that take hold?
Yeah, because it was a narrative. It was a narrative that, you know, that's an issue when you talk about, you know, it's not a thing.
It isn't real as you and I have talked about on your show Todd, you know, there's like six people in the WIA where, where it's, it's happening.
And it's, there's a circumstances around each one of those, but it's a narrative that, you know, it's a narrative about not getting it.
It's sort of the same as Democrats having pointed out that the other side was weird. They kind of went away from that.
And that was a narrative that took hold.
Yeah, absolutely.
Well, a lot to be written in terms of narratives and what's yet to come here, do not go anywhere.
We have Pat Crightlow, Trigby Olson.
