PODCAST: Greta Neubauer on the 2024 election and what's ahead in 2025

I'm Dan Shaffer.

Thank you for joining us.

We have a special guest with us today, so we're just going to get right to it.

Joining us is the State Representative from Wisconsin 66th Assembly District and the Assembly Democratic Leader Greta Neubauer.

Greta, welcome to the Reconpopulation Area.

Thank you so much for joining us.

Thanks so much, Dan.

Always great to chat with you.

Absolutely.

So I was just thinking back here.

The last time we had a chance to sit down and talk was in August.

in Chicago at the DNC.

It feels like a lifetime ago.

But there, when we sat down to talk, you said that Democrats had a chance to win 52 seats in the Wisconsin State Assembly.

You ended up winning 46.

So why do you think you came up short of that ambitious goal?

Yeah, 45, actually.

Not to diminish,

but... 45.

So we...

Of course, they're always going to be ambitious.

And the work that we do is going out and talking to voters and trying to connect with them across the state.

And we had fantastic candidates who ran really good races.

And I think we had a real shot in all of those 52 seats.

We had a number of places where we came up just short, really close elections in Milwaukee suburbs, in Green Bay.

And those are places where we're going to be competing in future years.

And so we are really pleased that in a tough year for Democrats, we were able to pick up 10 seats.

We were able to narrow the margin quite a bit.

We've got five more to go to get that majority.

We've got great candidates who really built the infrastructure, grassroots infrastructure in many of these districts that had not had competitive local elections in quite some time.

They got some experience.

Many of them want to run again.

And so we feel proud of the work we did.

Of course, disappointed not to get the majority, but we think we laid the groundwork for two years from now when we'll have an opportunity at a trifecta with the Senate also being in a strong position to win a majority.

Yeah, that's that's interesting and and I'm already gonna be kicking myself from saying that number incorrectly Right off the bat here.

I screwed

up numbers to keep track of

I know I know But but yeah, I think you know when you're taking a step back a lot of those races were really really close Like you said there were there were a couple you know in the Fox Valley in Green Bay that were decided by you know just a few of just a few hundred votes

Hindsight is, of course, 2020.

But when you look back at some of these races, is there anything that really stands out to you as something that you maybe wish you would have done differently?

You know, there's not a lot.

I think the candidates were fantastic.

We sat down with everybody before they got their names on the ballot, and we said, this is going to be really rigorous.

We're going to expect that you're out knocking on doors five days a week, that you're raising money, that you're doing events, and talking to your voters basically in every minute possible between now and election day.

And our candidates really did do that.

I think they connected with the people of their districts.

They shared their experience.

They were locally rooted full

who had a deep understanding of the issues impacting their communities.

Our campaigns were well run.

We had, I think, the right messages for the year.

And we had significant resources to put behind them as well.

We're really proud of the fundraising that we were able to do this year.

And so I really think the campaigns were very well executed.

Obviously, it was a difficult year for Democrats overall, and it is tough.

when the top of the ticket struggles in Wisconsin for us to Really be able to do what we need to do.

I Will say that I think Democrats overall right of course have some reflecting to do after this election and I think It's very concerning to all of us that particularly those folks that make less than a hundred thousand dollars a year really moved away from Democrats and so

I think we're all thinking about what we need to do in the Capitol and in our communications and on the campaign trail to reconnect with those voters and to talk about the work that we have done and we are going to do to improve their lives.

You know, who are the Democrats, if not the party of working in middle class people.

And so while I think our candidates on the doors talked a lot about the

pocketbook issues that Wisconsinites are thinking about I do think that You know the brand of Democrats and sort of the the way that people understand what Democrats believe We're gonna be thinking about it for a while

So what are some of those conversations you're having like at this moment?

Well

you know a lot of what we're doing right now is we've got 23 new members coming into the assembly democratic caucus that is a majority of our caucus that will be new and all of those people were out you know campaigning in primaries and in general elections and talking to voters and to their constituents and so I think what we're doing right now is a lot of listening.

and trying to understand exactly what happened.

As I'm sure you know, we still don't have the voter file yet.

And so it's hard to know exactly who turned up this year, who turned out to vote and who didn't, and what we can make of that, right?

Did our knocking on doors really have an impact?

We think it did, but we want to see the data, right?

And so I think there's still quite a bit of analysis to do there.

But what we are doing, as I said, is listening to our new members who are coming in and to our constituents and really trying to understand where things fell apart.

I think many of us look at Trump and his last presidency and believe that he really did very little for the people of Wisconsin, that he's just not looking out for the people of Wisconsin.

But clearly, some people felt otherwise.

And so we're just trying to understand that.

I think our policy priorities continue.

We have always been focused on lowering costs for working and middle class families.

We have always been focused on investing in childcare and education.

increasing access to affordable health care, creating good jobs.

We know that those are top priorities for the people of Wisconsin, and we just need to really make sure that people understand what we're doing in Madison and how it would directly impact them and their family.

Yeah, I think this is one of the conversations that people have been having since the election and all that.

Do you think it is part of

the problem that Democrats have faced this year, do you think part of it is a messaging question?

Do you think part of it is that it is more challenging to, or maybe there were missteps a long way in getting that message out to people and telling the story of what Democrats have done and want to do in their positions of power?

Yeah, I definitely think that's part of it.

I heard an interview with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez that I thought was really insightful.

She talked about the ad that was run across the country by the Trump campaign that said, Kamala Harris is focused on may them and Trump is focused on you.

And she said that people have really been focused right on the first half of that statement, them, Kamala Harris focused on them.

But really what we should be thinking about is the second piece of that, which is the Trump is focused on you.

And I think that Republicans were able to convince a lot of people that Democrats did not care about them.

And that is a real concern to all of us, right?

I think Trump was able to resonate with the anger that many people feel over really struggling to make it to the end of the month.

We know that inequality is...

incredibly high, right, that that has increased over the past several decades and that there's real work to do around that.

And I will also note that I've seen some recent conversation about, you know, things like NAFTA and the impact of NAFTA and some of this economic policy that Democrats

were part of passing and putting into place you know several decades ago and the impact of that on communities like Racine right when I run by our local YMCA and it's shuttered in the city of Racine I can't help but think about that policy and so I do think that Democrats have things to answer for right um policy decisions that we've made that we didn't

maybe anticipate the impacts, ever know what the impacts would be.

And there is real work to do to invest in our local communities to help people not just survive, but thrive, right?

To have real jobs that support their families and help them plan for retirement.

And Democrats,

you know, have consistently been the party that is looking out for working class families.

But there is work to do in policy and in messaging to ensure that we are reaching those voters and those constituents and we are

We are building an image for 2025 and forward That makes it really clear that Trump is in it for himself.

He's in it for rich people.

He's in it for corporations and Democrats and you know, your local assembly democratic representative is in it for you

Yeah, that's interesting stuff.

So thinking back to to the election as well, you know, obviously you mentioned we talked about how

maybe some of those ambitious goals were not quite reached this election cycle, but you were still able to flip 10 seats under new maps.

And there was a lot more competition across the board.

So just reflect on that experience.

And what did that teach you about having a lot more competitive districts, about the ability to compete in places that you maybe, because of the maps, were not able to.

Previously what what did you learn from that experience?

Oh my gosh, it's really a good question.

So You first of all we just had to scale up in a totally different way this year I've been the leader now for just about three years and so did help run the campaign operation for the assembly Democrats two years ago

And we had a handful of competitive seats, right?

They were close.

They were expensive.

They were very rigorous.

We saw, you know, terrible attack ads on our candidates.

And so sort of those fundamentals we have seen before of what these really competitive campaigns look like in Wisconsin.

Um, but we had 15 targeted seats this year and so many candidates in, as you said, really different parts of the state, different kinds of communities, right?

We had folks who were in smaller cities in Wisconsin, more rural areas, some suburban, a combination of all three.

Um, and we have seats, new members coming in from, you know, all four borders, right?

Upstate of Wisconsin.

Um, and so,

I feel grounded in, how do I say this?

I guess I'll say, I think the way that we campaign is that we really try to empower our candidates in those districts to listen to the people they're talking to on the doors and to make that the core of their campaign.

To understand the different parts of the state.

have different priorities.

People in Western Wisconsin are really concerned about access to health care and not having to drive several hours when they need to have a baby or get access to mental health care.

People in other parts of the state are feeling a real housing crunch.

Some communities have lost childcare centers and have nowhere to turn.

And so we really try to make sure that our campaigns are rooted in the hyper-local issues that are top of mind for folks.

We also really strongly believe in knocking on doors.

As I said, I think we feel that those one-on-one conversations are

the most powerful tool that we have in convincing someone who might be a little disillusioned with the political process to show up, but also reaching that person who hasn't decided yet how they're going to vote.

You know, we heard story after story from our candidates about knocking on a door and having someone say, you know, I like that Trump guy, but you're here and it seems like you're a good person who cares about the things that I care about and I'm going to vote for you this year.

And in some of these districts, we will need that.

There are some districts that are right around 50% districts where in a tough year, if Republicans win at the top of the ticket, we will need people to split.

You know, it's always a small percentage of voters who do that.

But in Wisconsin, it's often enough to determine a victory, right?

It was enough for Tammy Baldwin this year.

It was enough for Steve Doyle.

And we're just gonna remain focused on doing everything we can to have our candidates be locally grounded and rooted and empower them to talk about the issues that are most important to their folks.

Yeah.

And so, you know, taking a look at some of the results.

I found it interesting that some of the Republicans that maybe overperformed the top of the ticket.

Also the case for Steve Doyle in Western Wisconsin, but that a lot of them were incumbents.

And I think that's one thing I think people need to recognize with.

you know, this first election under new maps, there's still a lot of the gerrym- the lingering effects of the gerrymander means that there are more Republican incumbents.

And I think, you know, you look at some of the incumbents like Jesse Rodriguez or Bob Donovan or Todd Novak, those were the, you know, kind of swing district candidates that tended to do better.

So how important is

the incumbency factor in these assembly races.

Yeah, I appreciate you raising this.

And this is clearly part of the story, right?

In those five seats that we lost that we would have needed to win to get the majority that we'll be going after in two years.

Four of them either had an incumbent or someone who previously served in the assembly, right?

So the type of incumbent.

And those folks did overperform.

And there's a lot of reasons for that.

But I think the clearest, the most obvious is that they are communicating with their constituents year round.

They are present in their communities.

They're going to events.

They're getting to know people.

And I think there's some interesting trends to dig into this year.

We overall, in the country, saw voter turnout go down in Wisconsin.

That was not the case.

We had good voter turnout this year.

But I think one of the dynamics that I'm interested to look into as we're getting the data back on who voted this year is that I think in a year in which there's a lot of disillusionment and a lot of frustration with politics as a whole, which I would say in my experience is at an all-time high since I've been in politics, is that there is a potential there for incumbents to still overperform if people know them.

Right.

So people are frustrated with politicians in general, but they often still like their local person because they met them at a breakfast with the Rotary Club and they feel that that person is different than other politicians.

That person does care about them.

And so I think what we saw was people

gravitating maybe more so than in the last cycle towards Trump and his sort of anger, but his resonance with people's frustrations about politics.

So I think there's interesting dynamics here, but certainly trying to flip 15 seats and beat a lot of incumbents was a tough road to hoe this year.

And we are thinking a lot about what we need to do over the next two years to prepare to go up against these incumbents in two years who have built strong brands, who know people, and who are able to sort of cut through the political

environment.

And so I want to ask about some of the issues that you've been hearing about too.

And one of the things that

you know, that you've mentioned a couple times here is it's important to be listening to your constituents, to your voters, to the people that you're having these one-on-one conversations with, you know, at the doors.

Obviously, we know the economy really stood out as a top issue in this election.

Immigration was another one that consistently pulled very high as a priority for a lot of people.

Now, there was a pretty big partisan split.

on which party deemed that to be a priority.

But it clearly was pretty high on the list for what people were concerned with on this.

My question with this is, I'm curious what you think the Democratic message on immigration and the border really is right now.

Because I think that to me, even as an outside observer, it's not entirely clear to me.

And I think that really emerged as a top issue in this campaign.

So when you're having those conversations with voters on the doors, if they say their top issue is immigration, if they say their top issue is border security, what are assembly Democrats saying in response to that concern?

Yeah, it's a good question.

And I think one of the challenges that we had just in reflecting on this year is that, of course, we have very little to do with the border.

And our candidates

They understand that it's not our role in the legislature right to to regulate immigration or to think about you know who deserves citizenship But our Republican colleagues were more than willing right to put out mailers saying that they they're tough on tough on this issue right that they want to secure the border that they want to crack down and

voters often don't understand what is under our purview.

And so I do think we had a challenge this year with our candidates struggling to communicate about this issue, recognizing and being honest with voters that this is not something we have a lot of control over.

So what I would say is that we understand that immigrants are an essential part of our communities here in Wisconsin that our

workforce needs immigrants, right?

It means the people who are here and it means more people.

We have continued to face workforce shortages, right?

And that's only going to exacerbate in the years ahead.

You know, Trump's talk of mass deportations I know has

put the dairy industry on high alert, manufacturing sector, and then, of course, many of us who just believe that separating families or removing people who have lived in our communities for decades and been an integral part of our communities is wrong.

And so I think there's going to be a balance here.

want to have an immigration system that works, right?

They want to have a border where there is an orderly process, right?

And where we understand who is coming across the border.

But I also think that most people in Wisconsin disagree with Trump's policy on mass deportations and on moving really significant resources to

to criminalizing immigration.

And so I hope that our folks at the federal level, I know Senator Baldwin has been very focused on this issue and ensuring that we're finding that balance of treating people humanely and understanding that we want to have immigrants come to Wisconsin and also understanding that people across the state and across the country

have been fed some misinformation about this issue and are very fearful about what the future might hold.

Well, it's obviously going to be a really big issue to follow in this second Trump term once he's inaugurated in January.

I want to look ahead to next year in Wisconsin, next year at the state capitol.

What are what are you expecting to perhaps be different or the same with smaller Republican majorities in the Assembly and Senate?

Sure, so I think we've already started to see the impact to fair maps in Wisconsin We saw Republicans much more willing to negotiate

last budget cycle and particularly on issues like shared revenue and housing and even having more conversations about things like legalizing marijuana and investing in our schools.

And so that's good news.

That's good for democracy.

That's good for the voters.

And I think a lot of people, a lot of legislators are coming back to the Capitol having heard about the same issues on the doors, right?

In many cases, talking to the same voters.

And people talked about education.

They talked about costs.

They talked about health care access.

They talked about our rights.

and protecting our freedoms under a Trump administration in particular.

And so I think there's going to be a lot more room for bipartisan work.

It's always a little tough to come off a partisan campaign trail, but as far as we're concerned, the campaign's over and the voters send us to Madison to get things done.

They don't care whose name is on the bill.

They don't care which party it came from.

They just want us to focus on policy that's going to improve their lives.

And so I'm hopeful that, particularly in the budget process, we'll see some real

some real investment in our schools where frankly I think we've been failing our kids that we will see an effort to compromise on things like a tax cut.

Of course Republicans are out the gate right talking about another tax cut and we're open to that but it has to be focused on helping those people who are having a difficult time make ends meet.

It can't be focused on more giveaways to the rich and to corporations like we've seen from our Republican colleagues in the past.

So

I think there's going to be a lot more negotiation, a lot more discussion between parties.

I know our new folks are coming in with a real commitment to working across the aisle.

And our folks who have been here for a while see new openings to work on the issues that are most important to them and their constituents.

So do you expect a more bipartisan?

more bipartisan efforts, or do you expect the Republicans to be just as dug in as they have been before?

I mean, obviously they still have, Robin Voss is still the assembly speaker, and we've seen how Robin Voss operates and has for the past 12 plus years in that role.

We have, but I think a good example on this is the efforts to impeach Justice Janet Protosewitz, right?

We saw Robin Voss and others come out and say that they wanted to do that.

And then we know what happened is,

Members, Republican legislators went to their leadership and expressed concern about that, right?

Many people who expected that they might be running in more competitive districts that we know were in districts that protested what's won, right?

And they said, I think this is too far, right?

And so I think that that is what we're expecting to see more of is people who have to look over their left shoulder and their right shoulder and know that they're up for election in two years and want to be responsive to their constituents and don't want to be seen as hyperpartisan because it's not what the people of Wisconsin are asking us for.

And so I'm hopeful that the members will do everything they can to push back on leadership's efforts to

You know ignore these critical issues to Wisconsinites and and I expect that that will be the case

So looking ahead then what are your some of your priorities as assembly Democrats on the budget on other bills and so forth.

Yeah, so We always see our work is twofold, right?

We want to get done Everything that we can we want to take every opportunity to invest in our schools to lower costs for families

I mentioned in childcare and housing and prescription drugs.

We want to create opportunities for people to have good jobs and have a safe workplace.

We also have longer term priorities, things that might be difficult to accomplish in this year, but we know are things that are really important to the people of Wisconsin, like their access to abortion.

the rights of working people to organize and to have a fair say in their wages and their benefits.

We know that people care about the environment and clean drinking water.

We want to focus on safety and criminal justice reform.

We have a lot of members and they have diverse priorities depending on their districts and their interests and we're going to continue to push forward that long-term visionary policy while also taking every opportunity we can to get things done.

Well Greta, thank you so much for taking some time to speak with us here at the Reconvibulation Area.

We'll enjoy the holiday season and we'll enjoy some of your own

Recombobulating in the weeks to come here and we'll look forward to speaking again in the new

year.

Thanks so much, Dan.

Always really, really great to join you.