Iowa Politics with Jeff Stein -- Wed. Oct. 14, 2026

Crystal Ball Politics.

I'm Jeff Stein with today's Iowa Politics Report.

Early voting begins today in Iowa, 20 days before the actual election date.

Now, we've heard a lot in the past couple of weeks about trends in the election.

First, it was that Democrats had a bit of an overall edge.

Then it would be a blue wave.

Then, don't count out the GOP, followed by, there's a true path to keeping a GOP majority in Congress, and now back again.

Much of that is tied to polling data.

Well, don't trust any of it.

Anyone who says they know how this is all going to turn out is either spinning it to fit their own narrative or business model or they're flat out lying.

Doesn't matter which, the fact, and really the only fact,

is that no one knows how the election will go.

There are too many variables in too many places and polling was far more reliable back in Iowa native George Gallup's day.

And you can also forget national trends.

There is no national race on the ballot as there is in a presidential year.

Incumbents of both parties appear to be in trouble in both blue and red states.

States that have been reliably red lately may not be in certain races due to the candidates themselves.

Iowa falls into this category.

And states that are basically blue are finding that there are too many shades of blue in the crayon box these days and that could affect

results there.

I'm tempted to say there is one other fact, and that is that we'll have to wait until votes are counted on election night.

But even that is in doubt given how some states count and find votes.

So block out the noise and stick with your plan to study races and make informed votes, no matter what people tell you the result is bound to be.

And that's the Iowa Politics Report for Wednesday, October 14th on Twitter, Instagram, Gitter, Threads and Truth Social at Iowa Politics.

I'm Jeff Stein on News Talk 1540 KXEL.