You may have noticed something about gas prices. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, prices shot up almost overnight. But when oil markets settled back down, it took weeks — sometimes months — for prices at the pump to follow. Economists have a name for this. They call it "rockets and feathers."

Here's why. When crude oil prices surge, gas stations raise prices immediately. They have to — they need today's revenue to pay for tomorrow's delivery at the higher price. That part is rational.

But when crude prices fall, there's no urgency to lower the pump price. The gas in the tank was bought at the old, higher price, and every day the price stays up, the margin is better. Competition eventually pushes prices down — but slowly, station by station, penny by penny.

So spikes are measured in days. Drops are measured in weeks. And in places with fewer gas stations and less competition — like rural Wisconsin — the feather falls even slower.

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"Rockets and feathers" is the term economists use for the well-documented pattern where gas prices rise faster than they fall. The concept was first formally described by economist Robert Bacon in 1991 and has been extensively validated in research since. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has published reviews of retail gasoline pricing asymmetry.)

The 2022 price spike: When Russia invaded Ukraine, the national average gas price hit $5.02/gallon in June 2022 — an all-time record. Crude oil peaked near $120/barrel (Brent) in March 2022 and fell below $80 by late summer. But retail gas prices took months to follow crude back down. (EIA gasoline price data)

Why prices go up faster than they come down: Gas stations price based on "replacement cost" — the price of their next delivery, not the gas currently in their tanks. When crude spikes, they raise prices immediately to cover tomorrow's more expensive shipment. When crude drops, there's no urgency — the gas already in the ground was bought at the higher price, and every day the pump price stays up, the station's margin improves. Competition eventually pushes prices down, but slowly.

Refinery margins also play a role. During price declines, wholesale gasoline tends to drop more slowly than crude oil, which means refiners capture a wider "crack spread" — the difference between crude oil cost and wholesale gasoline price. (EIA crack spread data)

Rural areas feel it more: The asymmetry is more pronounced in communities with fewer competing gas stations. In rural Wisconsin, where many communities have only 2-3 stations, there's less competitive pressure to lower prices quickly.

Current context: Gas averaged about $3.10/gallon nationally in 2025 and surged sharply in early 2026 due to the Iran conflict and closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The national average crossed $4/gallon on April 2, 2026 — the first time since August 2022 — hitting $4.08 per AAA. As of April 21, 2026, the national average is $4.02. (AAA; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook)

It's happening right now. The Wall Street Journal reported on April 20, 2026, that despite an Iran ceasefire and oil prices retreating, gas prices at the pump continued to rise — a textbook rockets-and-feathers scenario. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on CNN's State of the Union (April 19, 2026) that prices have "likely peaked" but gas may not return below $3/gallon until 2027. President Trump disagreed, saying Wright was "totally wrong" and that prices would drop "as soon as this ends." (CNN; Axios; Fortune)

Related Civic Minute segments: What's in a Gallon of Gas (CM-22), Oil Is a Global Commodity (CM-23)