In 2022, under Wisconsin's old gerrymandered maps, only four out of ninety-nine state Assembly races were decided by fewer than five points. Four. The other ninety-five? The outcome was basically known before the first vote was cast.

Congress is even worse. Since those maps were drawn, the median margin of victory across Wisconsin's eight congressional districts has been close to thirty points. In a state that's essentially fifty-fifty.

When your representative knows they can't lose, they don't have to listen to you. They don't have to compromise. They don't even have to show up. They answer to whoever picks their voters — not to the voters themselves.

Wisconsin got new state legislative maps in 2024, and the difference was dramatic — real races, real choices, and fourteen seats changed hands. The congressional maps? Still the same. There's a lawsuit in the courts right now challenging those maps, but no new lines before this November.

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Only 4 of 99 Assembly races were competitive in 2022. Under the old gerrymandered maps, just four races were decided by fewer than 5 percentage points. The other 95 had outcomes that were effectively predetermined. (Wisconsin Watch / WPR)

Congressional races are even less competitive. Since the maps were drawn in 2011, the median margin of victory across Wisconsin's eight congressional districts has been close to 30 percentage points. Only 1 of 40 congressional races since 2011 was decided by fewer than 10 points. In a state where statewide elections are routinely decided by 1-3 points. (AP via PBS Wisconsin; Law Forward)

New maps produced real competition in 2024. Under the new state legislative maps, 82 of 99 Assembly districts had candidates from both parties — the highest since 2010. Fourteen seats changed hands (10 Assembly, 4 Senate). The Assembly went from 64R-34D to 54R-45D. (Marquette Law Faculty Blog)

Why lack of competition matters: When representatives can't lose, they answer to party leadership and primary voters rather than to the broader public. There's no incentive to compromise, engage with constituents, or show up at town halls. Safe seats are where accountability dies.

Congressional maps unchanged for 2026. The Bothfield v. WEC lawsuit was dismissed March 31, 2026. A second lawsuit goes to trial in 2027. No new congressional maps before November 2026. (WPR; Wisconsin Examiner)

General gerrymandering resources: See CM-5 for links to PlanScore, Princeton Gerrymandering Project, MIT Election Data + Science Lab, Brennan Center, and Dave's Redistricting App.

Related Civic Minute segments: Packing and Cracking (CM-5), How Safe Seats Make Politics Worse (CM-10), The People Already Agree (CM-9)