The United States already produces more oil than any country on Earth — nearly fourteen million barrels a day. That's a record. And gas still shot past four dollars this spring.

Why didn't all that production protect us? Because American oil enters a global market of over a hundred million barrels a day. Our record output is about thirteen percent of the total. Even a big increase in American drilling is a small change in world supply.

And here's the catch: OPEC — a consortium of thirteen oil-exporting countries — exists specifically to manage global oil prices. If the U.S. pumps more, OPEC can cut their own production to keep prices where they want them. They've been doing this for over sixty years. It's not a conspiracy — it's their stated purpose.

Drilling more isn't nothing. But it's not the lever most people think it is.

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U.S. oil production is at an all-time record — roughly 13.8 million barrels per day as of late 2025, the highest of any country in history. Yet gas prices still spiked past $4 this spring after the Iran conflict disrupted global supply. (EIA)

U.S. production is about 13% of global supply. The world consumes roughly 106 million barrels per day. Even a significant increase in American drilling represents a small change in total world supply. (Bipartisan Policy Center)

OPEC can offset U.S. production increases. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a consortium of 13 oil-exporting nations whose stated mission is to "coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries." OPEC+ (which includes allies like Russia) routinely adjusts output targets to manage global prices. If U.S. production rises, OPEC can cut their own to keep prices stable. (OPEC.org)

New drilling doesn't help in a crisis. Drilling, fracking, and completing a new well takes months. By the time new supply reaches the market, the crisis that caused the price spike is often over. Resources for the Future noted that "there is no such thing as energy independence, particularly when it comes to oil" — even at record production, the U.S. can't act as a "swing producer" fast enough to respond to sudden disruptions. (Resources for the Future)

Current gas prices: Averaged about $3.10/gallon in 2025. Prices surged past $4/gallon in early April 2026 due to Iran/Strait of Hormuz disruptions — the highest since August 2022. As of April 21, 2026, the national average is $4.02. (AAA; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook)

Related Civic Minute segments: Oil Is a Global Commodity (CM-23), We Drill It, Export It, Import What We Need (CM-28), What Energy Independence Actually Means (CM-38)