Rural voters know that ultra-millionaires and the elite political class are out of touch with their day-to-day lives

Matt Hildreth, RuralOrganizing

President Trump won more than nine out of every ten rural counties in 2024.

He’s now sitting at 52% favorable, 46% unfavorable among rural voters in battleground states, and 49% of rural voters in the same territory say they feel worse about him since he was re-elected, including a quarter of Republicans. That is not a man cruising into the midterms. That is a man whose coalition is fraying at the edges, and the edges are exactly where we live.

A majority (56%) of rural battleground voters say the country is on the wrong track. 53% say the same about rural America specifically.

That’s what Lake Research Partners found in their poll of 600 likely general election voters in rural counties across thirteen Senate battleground states, commissioned by the Center for Rural Strategies. The sample included rural voters in 13 Senate battleground states (AK, FL, GA, IA, ME, MI, MN, MT, NE, NC, NH, OH, TX), with a 100-Latino oversample, and was fielded March 18–25, 2026.

If you’re a county chair, an organizer, an Indivisible lead, or a local elected official or candidate in rural America, you already likely feel these findings in your daily life, but it helps to have the number to confirm what those of us in Rural America have been saying for years, and because they show some real opportunities opening up in places that have been ignored for decades.

Even so, some results from the survey surprised me.

In 2023, 42% of rural battleground voters said they wanted the government to “get out of their way.” Today, that number is 32%.

Meanwhile, 27% want the government to “create opportunities,” and another 27% want it to do both (BOTH WHAT?). The shift is across Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

Sixty-seven percent of rural voters worry about the government cutting funding for public programs that small-town and rural families rely on, like SNAP and Medicaid. Among Democrats, it’s 88%. Among independents, it’s 75%. Among Republicans, it’s still 51%.

The worsening economic conditions are making voters demand a stronger response from the government. And it’s a logical conclusion. If bad actions by the government, like the war with Iran and tariffs, can negatively impact the economy, then good actions should lead to positive outcomes.

Today, 55% of rural voters say the rising cost of living is the most important issue facing them and their families. Health care comes in second at 25%. Retirement and Social Security at 20%. SNAP cuts, Medicaid cuts, hospital closures, and rural mail service degradation are all happening to actual people who actually know each other, and anti-government bumper stickers don’t pay the bills.

The cost of food alone is the top economic concern for 40% of rural voters. Gas, health care, utilities, and housing follow close behind. And here’s the part that should reframe a lot of our messaging: 84% of rural voters are worried (40% very worried) that politicians just don’t understand how hard it is to make ends meet and support a family.

And 71% of rural battleground voters worry about “spending too much abroad instead of investing here at home.” 47% want to stop funding foreign wars. The frame “bring the money home for rural roads, schools, and hospitals” beats “national security in Iran” 47–45 head-to-head.

Even when looking at Trump’s landmark issue, immigration, 60% support “current immigration policies” but support drops to 49% (and women drop hardest, 62% to 49%) when “mass deportation” is in the description.

When voters tell us politicians are out of touch, they mean it as a specific, concrete grievance: you don’t know what eggs cost, you don’t know what my insulin costs, you don’t know what my electric bill did this winter.

If the first 10 seconds of every conversation with voters, every door knock, every town hall doesn’t communicate that we get it, we’ve already lost the conversation.

Rural voters are not conservative on economics in the way Washington Republicans are. Rural voters are populist. They are angry at corporations and angry at corruption, and they want someone to do something about both.

In fact, progressive Democratic economic policies consistently poll above 80% in rural counties that Trump won by 30+ points.

When tested on specific economic policies, the numbers are extraordinary:

• Protecting Social Security: 92% support, 76% strongly
• Creating manufacturing jobs at home instead of shipping them overseas: 90% support, 65% strongly
• Cracking down on price gouging: 89% support, 65% strongly
• Affordable health care and lower prescription drug prices: 89% support, 64% strongly
• Regulating data centers so they don’t pass costs onto rural residents or drain water reservoirs: 82% support

Pharmaceutical corporations are 25 points net unfavorable. Data centers are 18 points net unfavorable. Large tech companies are 14 points net unfavorable. Labor unions are 8 points net favorable.

The disconnect between what rural voters want and how rural voters vote is not because they disagree with us on policy. It’s because they don’t believe we’ll deliver, or they don’t believe we like them, or they don’t hear us talking about it in a way that sounds like it’s meant for them.

Still, it’s not all good news for Democratic candidates this cycle. The negative-partisanship numbers are real. Democrats in Congress are 30 points net unfavorable in this sample.

• Republicans in Congress: 51% favorable, but only 13% very favorable in a sample that’s 55% Republican. That is soft support.
• The Republican advantage on “better for rural families” has dropped from +25 in 2023 to +17 today.
• The Republican advantage on the rural economy is just +13. Among rural independents, it’s net negative — and 46% of independents say neither party is better.
• Among rural independents, Republicans in Congress are 24 points net unfavorable. Trump is 35 points net unfavorable. The war in Iran is 54 points net unfavorable.
• 47% of rural voters say Trump’s tariffs have harmed their family’s economic situation, including 23% of Republicans.
• 71% of rural voters worry the U.S. is spending too much abroad — a worry that hits Republicans (66%) just as hard as Democrats and independents.
• 44% of rural voters believe recent military interventions abroad have harmed U.S. economic interests. The war in Iran is 24 points net unfavorable.

When you give voters a chance to evaluate Republicans on what they’re actually doing (on costs, on Social Security, on tariffs, on Iran) the numbers get a lot worse for them. However, the Republican coalition in rural America is held together by partisanship and culture, and rural voters are often willing to give Republicans a pass because Republicans more often than Democrats have deep cultural roots in many rural communities.

Sixty-six percent of rural voters are favorable toward churches and faith institutions. That number is 78% among Republicans, 79% among Democrats, and 51% among independents. It is not a partisan number. Churches are net +44 in favorability — more popular than any political figure or institution tested.

Sixty-seven percent of rural voters say faith communities are important in times of crisis. 51% say faith institutions actively respond to economic challenges in their communities. 69% say faith unites their rural community. Among Republicans, 34% say religion informs their voting decisions nearly as much as their economic situation does.

So here are a few practical takeaways for county chairs, Indivisible leaders, and local electeds, having read through this poll:

1. Lead with costs, every time. Not “the economy.” For rural voters is all about concrete costs. Groceries. Gas. Insulin. The electric bill. The hospital bill. If your candidates and surrogates are not talking about specific costs in specific terms, they are missing the dominant concern of every demographic group in this sample.
2. Stop conceding government. The “get government out of my way” frame has lost ten points in three years. People want help. Talk about Social Security as something we built, and they’re trying to dismantle. Talk about Medicaid as the reason the rural hospital is still open. Talk about SNAP as to how the kids in your county eat lunch. Don’t apologize for any of it.
3. Use populist language honestly. Price gouging. Corporate greed. Billionaires. Pharma profits. Foreign wars are draining money that should be invested at home. These aren’t lefty talking points in rural America; they are the points. Rural voters are populists looking for someone to validate what they already believe.

The Trump Coalition’s cracks are real in Rural America, but they don’t close on their own. We know that the only way to win in Rural America is by following the lead of Rural Americans, so now is your time to get visible, get vocal, and get votes!

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